EQT Corporation (EQT) Fair Value 2026

EQT · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, EQT Corporation (EQT) trades at $54.57, versus a $41.81 median fair value across its 11 active models — 23.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $81.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
EQT
Price
$54.57
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +49.3% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is EQT Corporation (EQT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, EQT Corporation (EQT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $41.81, 23.4% below the current price of $54.57. Estimates range from $11.39 to $81.47. EQT scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EQT’s -23.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy EQT Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EQT?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $81.47 +49.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $45.99 -15.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $65.24 +19.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.51 -33.1%
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What Is EQT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $11.39 to $81.47

CirclFi's 11 active models place EQT Corporation (EQT) between $11.39 and $81.47 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $41.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EQT, against a current price of $54.57.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$11.39median $41.81$81.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$11.39
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$81.47
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EQT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EQT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is EQT Corporation (EQT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, EQT Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $41.81. Trading at $54.57, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -23.4%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $81.47 (+49.3%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $11.39 (-79.1%). This +128.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about EQT Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About EQT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for EQT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EQT is $41.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $81.47 on its own, implying +49.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EQT Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, EQT ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places EQT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

The Oil & Gas E&P sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For EQT Corporation, metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is EQT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EQT a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for EQT Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, EQT Corporation earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EQT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EQT's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy EQT Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

EXEExpand Energy CorporationQOC 8.7HPKHighPeak Energy, Inc.QOC 8.6GPORGulfport Energy CorporationQOC 8.8DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 8.8WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.QOC 7.8WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.QOC 6.4MTRMesa Royalty TrustQOC 5.0TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: EXE · HPK · GPOR · DMLP · EOG · WDS · NOG · WTI · MTR · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EQT?

7 companies across all industries closest to EQT’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

SYYSysco CorporationQOC 8.7PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7PDLBPonce Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7RGAReinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedQOC 8.7UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.QOC 8.7ACMRACM Research, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SYY · PPG · PDLB · RGA · UCB · ACMR · NVDA

Where Does EQT Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

EQT is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About EQT Corporation’s Valuation?

What is EQT Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts EQT Corporation (EQT)'s intrinsic value at $41.81 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $11.39 to $81.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $81.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EQT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.57, 3 of 11 active models suggest EQT may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $41.81, 23.4% below the current price of $54.57 — a consensus view that EQT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits EQT Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for EQT?

EQT Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EQT?

CirclFi analyzes EQT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EQT?

Of the 11 models currently active on EQT, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $81.47 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $11.39. CirclFi's published fair value for EQT is the median of that range, $41.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EQT a value trap in 2026?

EQT Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, EQT Corporation (EQT) has a median fair value of $41.81 — 23.4% below the current price of $54.57 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EQT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EQT valuation
  • Financial statements: EQT Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000033213) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EQT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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