HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) Fair Value 2026

HPK · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) trades at $8.10, versus a $11.29 median fair value across its 10 active models — 39.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HPK
Price
$8.10
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +471.2% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $11.29, 39.4% above the current price of $8.10. Estimates range from $1.45 to $46.26. HPK scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HPK’s +39.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -0.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HighPeak Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HPK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.90 +158.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $46.26 +471.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.40 -8.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.70 -66.6%
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What Is HPK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.45 to $46.26

CirclFi's 10 active models place HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) between $1.45 and $46.26 per share, a spread of 397% of the median. The median of that range — $11.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HPK, against a current price of $8.10.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · First Chicago
$1.45median $11.29$46.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.45
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$46.26
Model agreement5 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HPK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HPK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HighPeak Energy, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $8.10. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $11.29 (+39.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $46.26 (+471.2%), versus Regime Cross at $1.45 (-82.1%). This +553.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HPK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HPK. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HPK is $11.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HPK Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, HPK ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places HPK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, HighPeak Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where finding and development costs (F&D) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is HPK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HPK a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for HighPeak Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +553.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HPK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HPK's 10 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HighPeak Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

EQTEQT CorporationQOC 8.7DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5EXEExpand Energy CorporationQOC 8.7WDSWoodside Energy Group LtdQOC 8.5GPORGulfport Energy CorporationQOC 8.8CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4PROPPrairie Operating Co.QOC 7.8TXOTXO Partners, L.P.QOC 6.1PRTPermRock Royalty TrustQOC 4.9TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: EQT · DMLP · EXE · WDS · GPOR · CKX · PROP · TXO · PRT · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HPK?

7 companies across all industries closest to HPK’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

STGSunlands Technology GroupQOC 8.6WBSWebster Financial CorpQOC 8.6MSCIMSCI Inc.QOC 8.6EPRTEssential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.6CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6NTWKNetSol Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: STG · WBS · MSCI · EPRT · CBT · NTWK · NVDA

Where Does HPK Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

HPK is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About HighPeak Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK)'s intrinsic value at $11.29 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.45 to $46.26. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HPK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.10, 5 of 10 active models suggest HPK may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $11.29, 39.4% above the current price of $8.10 — a consensus view that HPK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for HPK?

HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HPK?

CirclFi analyzes HPK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HPK?

Of the 10 models currently active on HPK, First Chicago is the most bullish at $46.26 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.45. CirclFi's published fair value for HPK is the median of that range, $11.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 397% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HPK a value trap in 2026?

HighPeak Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) has a median fair value of $11.29 — 39.4% above the current price of $8.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HPK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HPK valuation
  • Financial statements: HighPeak Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001792849) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HPK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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