Transocean Ltd. (RIG) Fair Value 2026

RIG · Oil & Gas Drilling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Transocean Ltd. (RIG) trades at $5.80, versus a $4.59 median fair value across its 6 active models — 20.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
RIG
Price
$5.80
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +36.0% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Transocean Ltd. (RIG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Transocean Ltd. (RIG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $4.59, 20.9% below the current price of $5.80. Estimates range from $2.32 to $10.17. RIG scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RIG’s -20.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Transocean Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RIG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.89 +36.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.27 -9.1%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $3.81 -34.3%
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What Is RIG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $2.32 to $10.17

CirclFi's 6 active models place Transocean Ltd. (RIG) between $2.32 and $10.17 per share, a spread of 171% of the median. The median of that range — $4.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RIG, against a current price of $5.80.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$2.32median $4.59$10.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.32
Most bullish modelPWERM$10.17
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RIG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RIG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Transocean Ltd. (RIG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Transocean Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.59. Trading at $5.80, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.9%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +75.3% (fair value: $10.17), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -59.9% ($2.32). The spread between these extremes — +135.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About RIG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for RIG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RIG is $4.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.89 on its own, implying +36.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RIG Rank in Oil & Gas Drilling?

Among 10 Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, RIG ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Drilling sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Transocean Ltd., metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is RIG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RIG a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Transocean Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Transocean Ltd. earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RIG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RIG's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Transocean Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Drilling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Drilling stocks with 13-model coverage

VALValaris LimitedQOC 8.2NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.1BORRBorr Drilling LimitedQOC 7.8PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.QOC 7.1SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.5SOCSable Offshore Corp.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: VAL · NE · BORR · PDS · NBR · PTEN · HP · SDRL · SOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RIG?

7 companies across all industries closest to RIG’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

NCMINational CineMedia, Inc.QOC 6.6ZEOXZeo ScientifiX, Inc.QOC 6.6SLDPSolid Power, Inc.QOC 6.6TSLXSixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.QOC 6.6IVZInvesco Ltd.QOC 6.6IVFHInnovative Food Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NCMI · ZEOX · SLDP · TSLX · IVZ · IVFH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Transocean Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Transocean Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Transocean Ltd. (RIG)'s intrinsic value at $4.59 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.32 to $10.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RIG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.80, 2 of 6 active models suggest RIG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $4.59, 20.9% below the current price of $5.80 — a consensus view that RIG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Transocean Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas Drilling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for RIG?

Transocean Ltd.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RIG?

CirclFi analyzes RIG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RIG?

Of the 6 models currently active on RIG, PWERM is the most bullish at $10.17 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $2.32. CirclFi's published fair value for RIG is the median of that range, $4.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 171% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RIG a value trap in 2026?

Transocean Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Transocean Ltd. (RIG) has a median fair value of $4.59 — 20.9% below the current price of $5.80 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RIG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RIG valuation
  • Financial statements: Transocean Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001451505) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RIG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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