Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) Fair Value 2026

NBR · Drilling Oil & Gas Wells ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) trades at $83.55, approximately 170% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $30.99. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBR
Price
$83.55
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +423.1% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($83.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$30.99 -62.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$118.03 +41.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$437.06 +423.1%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$13.40 -84.0%

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What Is Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nabors Industries Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $131.80. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $83.55 (implied upside of +57.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +423.1% (fair value: $437.06), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -84.0% ($13.40). The spread between these extremes — +507.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NBR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NBR. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NBR's intrinsic value at $30.99, implying -62.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBR Rank in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells?

Among 12 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks, NBR ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s positioning within the Drilling Oil & Gas Wells segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NBR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBR a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Nabors Industries Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nabors Industries Ltd. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +507.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBR's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nabors Industries Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drilling Oil & Gas Wells Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HPK · BORR · NE · BTE · HP

Frequently Asked Questions About Nabors Industries Ltd.

What is Nabors Industries Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $30.99. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $83.55, 8 of 12 active models suggest NBR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nabors Industries Ltd.'s business model in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for NBR?

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBR?

CirclFi analyzes NBR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NBR a value trap in 2026?

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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