Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) Fair Value 2026

NBR · Oil & Gas Drilling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) trades at $91.71, versus a $41.49 median fair value across its 6 active models — 54.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBR
Price
$91.71
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $41.49, 54.8% below the current price of $91.71. Estimates range from $3.12 to $223.11. NBR scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NBR’s -54.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nabors Industries Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NBR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($91.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $64.29 -29.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.12 -96.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.68 -79.6%
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What Is NBR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $3.12 to $223.11

CirclFi's 6 active models place Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) between $3.12 and $223.11 per share, a spread of 530% of the median. The median of that range — $41.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NBR, against a current price of $91.71.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · PWERM
$3.12median $41.49$223.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.12
Most bullish modelPWERM$223.11
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NBR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NBR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nabors Industries Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $41.49. Trading at its current price of $91.71, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.8%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +143.3% (fair value: $223.11), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -96.6% ($3.12). The spread between these extremes — +239.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NBR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NBR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NBR is $41.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBR Rank in Oil & Gas Drilling?

Among 10 Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, NBR ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas Drilling segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NBR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Nabors Industries Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nabors Industries Ltd. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +239.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBR's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nabors Industries Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Drilling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Drilling stocks with 13-model coverage

VALValaris LimitedQOC 8.2NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.1BORRBorr Drilling LimitedQOC 7.8PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.QOC 7.1RIGTransocean Ltd.QOC 6.6SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.5SOCSable Offshore Corp.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: VAL · NE · BORR · PDS · PTEN · HP · RIG · SDRL · SOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NBR?

7 companies across all industries closest to NBR’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

MGMMGM Resorts InternationalQOC 7.6TOURTuniu CorporationQOC 7.6CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6FVCBFVCBankcorp, Inc.QOC 7.6MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MGM · TOUR · CWEN · FVCB · MGEE · GRDN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nabors Industries Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Nabors Industries Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR)'s intrinsic value at $41.49 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.12 to $223.11. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $91.71, 1 of 6 active models suggest NBR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $41.49, 54.8% below the current price of $91.71 — a consensus view that NBR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nabors Industries Ltd.'s business model in Oil & Gas Drilling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for NBR?

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBR?

CirclFi analyzes NBR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NBR?

Of the 6 models currently active on NBR, PWERM is the most bullish at $223.11 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.12. CirclFi's published fair value for NBR is the median of that range, $41.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 530% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NBR a value trap in 2026?

Nabors Industries Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) has a median fair value of $41.49 — 54.8% below the current price of $91.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NBR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NBR valuation
  • Financial statements: Nabors Industries Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001163739) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NBR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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