MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) Fair Value 2026

MDXG · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) trades at $4.51, versus a $2.82 median fair value across its 9 active models — 37.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDXG
Price
$4.51
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +89.0% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $2.82, 37.4% below the current price of $4.51. Estimates range from $1.05 to $8.53. MDXG scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MDXG’s -37.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MiMedx Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDXG?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.53 +89.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.05 -76.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.50 -22.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.14 +14.0%
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What Is MDXG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.05 to $8.53

CirclFi's 9 active models place MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) between $1.05 and $8.53 per share, a spread of 265% of the median. The median of that range — $2.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDXG, against a current price of $4.51.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Bayesian DCF
$1.05median $2.82$8.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.05
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$8.53
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDXG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDXG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MiMedx Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $2.82. Trading at $4.51, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -37.4%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +89.0% (fair value: $8.53), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -76.7% ($1.05). The spread between these extremes — +165.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MDXG?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MDXG. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MDXG is $2.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.53 on its own, implying +89.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDXG Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, MDXG ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MDXG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to life sciences company businesses. For MiMedx Group, Inc., metrics like market exclusivity window provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MDXG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDXG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for MiMedx Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MiMedx Group, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +165.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDXG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDXG's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MiMedx Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6PBYIPuma Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 8.7BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 8.6VCELVericel CorporationQOC 8.8INVAInnoviva, Inc.QOC 8.6MRVIMaravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8GNTAGenenta Science S.p.A.QOC 5.0BYSIBeyondSpring Inc.QOC 4.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: PTCT · NAGE · PBYI · BMRN · VCEL · INVA · MRVI · GNTA · BYSI · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDXG?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDXG’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

ESEESCO Technologies Inc.QOC 8.7MMSIMerit Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 8.7TOSTToast, Inc.QOC 8.7MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7WSOWatsco, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ESE · MMSI · TOST · MCY · DV · WSO · NVDA

Where Does MDXG Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

MDXG is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About MiMedx Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MiMedx Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG)'s intrinsic value at $2.82 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.05 to $8.53. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDXG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.51, 3 of 9 active models suggest MDXG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $2.82, 37.4% below the current price of $4.51 — a consensus view that MDXG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MiMedx Group, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MDXG?

MiMedx Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDXG?

CirclFi analyzes MDXG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDXG?

Of the 9 models currently active on MDXG, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $8.53 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.05. CirclFi's published fair value for MDXG is the median of that range, $2.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 265% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDXG a value trap in 2026?

MiMedx Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, MiMedx Group, Inc. (MDXG) has a median fair value of $2.82 — 37.4% below the current price of $4.51 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDXG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDXG valuation
  • Financial statements: MiMedx Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001376339) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDXG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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