Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Fair Value 2026

VCEL · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Vericel Corporation (VCEL) trades at $41.18, versus a $3.77 median fair value across its 9 active models — 90.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.83.

Key Facts

Ticker
VCEL
Price
$41.18
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vericel Corporation (VCEL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $3.77, 90.8% below the current price of $41.18. Estimates range from $0.81 to $7.62. VCEL scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VCEL’s -90.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vericel Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VCEL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($41.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.83 -90.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.77 -90.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.96 -95.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.87 -85.8%
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What Is VCEL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.81 to $7.62

CirclFi's 9 active models place Vericel Corporation (VCEL) between $0.81 and $7.62 per share, a spread of 180% of the median. The median of that range — $3.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VCEL, against a current price of $41.18.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · EROIC
$0.81median $3.77$7.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.81
Most bullish modelEROIC Spread$7.62
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VCEL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VCEL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vericel Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $3.77. Trading at its current price of $41.18, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -90.8%.

What Do the Models Say About VCEL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for VCEL. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for VCEL is $3.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.83 on its own, implying -90.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VCEL Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, VCEL ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places VCEL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Vericel Corporation's positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including breakthrough therapy designations — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VCEL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VCEL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Vericel Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Vericel Corporation earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+16.5% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VCEL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VCEL's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vericel Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

CGENCompugen Ltd.QOC 9.0PBYIPuma Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 8.7CRMDCorMedix Inc.QOC 9.0PTCTPTC Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.7ONCBeOne Medicines AGQOC 9.0MDXGMiMedx Group, Inc.QOC 8.7NKTRNektar TherapeuticsQOC 5.8PYXSPyxis Oncology, Inc.QOC 5.0IBOImpact BioMedical Inc.QOC 4.4EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: CGEN · PBYI · CRMD · PTCT · ONC · MDXG · NKTR · PYXS · IBO · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VCEL?

7 companies across all industries closest to VCEL’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

ILMNIllumina, Inc.QOC 8.8HBANHuntington Bancshares IncorporatedQOC 8.8IBOCInternational Bancshares CorporationQOC 8.8PINSPinterest, Inc.QOC 8.8MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 8.8BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ILMN · HBAN · IBOC · PINS · MGNI · BRC · NVDA

Where Does VCEL Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

VCEL is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vericel Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Vericel Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vericel Corporation (VCEL)'s intrinsic value at $3.77 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.81 to $7.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.83 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VCEL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $41.18, 0 of 9 active models suggest VCEL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $3.77, 90.8% below the current price of $41.18 — a consensus view that VCEL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vericel Corporation's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for VCEL?

Vericel Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VCEL?

CirclFi analyzes VCEL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VCEL?

Of the 9 models currently active on VCEL, EROIC Spread is the most bullish at $7.62 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.81. CirclFi's published fair value for VCEL is the median of that range, $3.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 180% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VCEL a value trap in 2026?

Vericel Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vericel Corporation (VCEL) has a median fair value of $3.77 — 90.8% below the current price of $41.18 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VCEL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VCEL valuation
  • Financial statements: Vericel Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000887359) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VCEL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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