Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Fair Value 2026

VCEL · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Vericel Corporation (VCEL) trades at $47.49, approximately 1497% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.97. QOC: 7.6/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VCEL
Price
$47.49
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$2.97 -93.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$8.87 -81.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$6.97 -85.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$5.42 -88.6%

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What Is Vericel Corporation (VCEL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vericel Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $10.90. Trading at its current price of $47.49, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -77.0%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -6.4% (fair value: $44.47), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -98.4% ($0.75). The spread between these extremes — +92.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About VCEL?

12 of 13 models are currently active for VCEL. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates VCEL's intrinsic value at $2.97, implying -93.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VCEL Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, VCEL ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Vericel Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is VCEL a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for VCEL. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Vericel Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Vericel Corporation earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VCEL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VCEL's 12 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vericel Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Vericel Corporation

What is Vericel Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Vericel Corporation (VCEL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.97. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VCEL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.49, 0 of 12 active models suggest VCEL may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vericel Corporation's business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for VCEL?

Vericel Corporation's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VCEL?

CirclFi analyzes VCEL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VCEL a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for VCEL at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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