Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Fair Value 2026

VRTX · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) trades at $547.55, versus a $191.00 median fair value across its 10 active models — 65.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $188.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
VRTX
Price
$547.55
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $191.00, 65.1% below the current price of $547.55. Estimates range from $46.06 to $426.00. VRTX scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VRTX’s -65.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VRTX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($547.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $188.40 -65.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $261.35 -52.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $193.61 -64.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $152.69 -72.1%
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What Is VRTX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $46.06 to $426.00

CirclFi's 10 active models place Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) between $46.06 and $426.00 per share, a spread of 199% of the median. The median of that range — $191.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VRTX, against a current price of $547.55.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · ML-RIV
$46.06median $191.00$426.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$46.06
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$426.00
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VRTX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VRTX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $191.00. Trading at its current price of $547.55, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -65.1%. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at -22.2% (fair value: $426.00), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -91.6% ($46.06). The spread between these extremes — +69.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About VRTX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for VRTX. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for VRTX is $191.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $188.40 on its own, implying -65.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VRTX Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, VRTX ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places VRTX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform technology validation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VRTX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VRTX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +69.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VRTX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VRTX's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2ONCBeOne Medicines AGQOC 9.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2CRMDCorMedix Inc.QOC 9.0HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2CGENCompugen Ltd.QOC 9.0BOLTBolt Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9MAIAMAIA Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 5.0TECXTectonic Therapeutic, Inc.QOC 4.4EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: HALO · ONC · AUPH · CRMD · HRMY · CGEN · BOLT · MAIA · TECX · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VRTX?

7 companies across all industries closest to VRTX’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

GRMNGarmin Ltd.QOC 9.1XYZBlock, Inc.QOC 9.1ESNTEssent Group Ltd.QOC 9.1GDDYGoDaddy Inc.QOC 9.1COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GRMN · XYZ · ESNT · GDDY · COKE · BSM · NVDA

Where Does VRTX Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

VRTX is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)'s intrinsic value at $191.00 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $46.06 to $426.00. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $188.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VRTX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $547.55, 0 of 10 active models suggest VRTX may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $191.00, 65.1% below the current price of $547.55 — a consensus view that VRTX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for VRTX?

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VRTX?

CirclFi analyzes VRTX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VRTX?

Of the 10 models currently active on VRTX, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $426.00 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $46.06. CirclFi's published fair value for VRTX is the median of that range, $191.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 199% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VRTX a value trap in 2026?

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) has a median fair value of $191.00 — 65.1% below the current price of $547.55 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VRTX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VRTX valuation

Market data for VRTX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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