Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) Fair Value 2026

VXRT · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) trades at $0.50, versus a $0.59 median fair value across its 8 active models — 18.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.58.

Key Facts

Ticker
VXRT
Price
$0.50
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +229.0% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $0.59, 18.5% above the current price of $0.50. Estimates range from $0.30 to $1.65. VXRT scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VXRT’s +18.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vaxart, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VXRT?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.58 +15.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.72 +43.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.05 +109.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.65 +229.0%
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What Is VXRT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.30 to $1.65

CirclFi's 8 active models place Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) between $0.30 and $1.65 per share, a spread of 226% of the median. The median of that range — $0.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VXRT, against a current price of $0.50.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$0.30median $0.59$1.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.30
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$1.65
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VXRT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VXRT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vaxart, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $0.59. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $0.50 (implied upside of +18.5%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 8 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +229.0% (fair value: $1.65), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -39.2% ($0.30). The spread between these extremes — +268.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About VXRT?

8 of 13 models are currently active for VXRT. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VXRT is $0.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.58 on its own, implying +15.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VXRT Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, VXRT ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places VXRT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Vaxart, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform technology validation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VXRT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VXRT a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Vaxart, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Vaxart, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +268.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VXRT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VXRT's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vaxart, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

TGTXTG Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.1RPRXRoyalty Pharma plcQOC 8.1KROSKeros Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.2LGNDLigand Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 7.9TBPHTheravance Biopharma, Inc.QOC 8.2KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.QOC 7.8NRXSNeurAxis, Inc.QOC 5.7ANROAlto Neuroscience, Inc.QOC 4.9CRBPCorbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: TGTX · RPRX · KROS · LGND · TBPH · KRYS · NRXS · ANRO · CRBP · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VXRT?

7 companies across all industries closest to VXRT’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.1OLEDUniversal Display CorporationQOC 8.1WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1FNRNFirst Northern Community BancorpQOC 8.1TAT&T Inc.QOC 8.1TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTNX · OLED · WEN · FNRN · T · TROW · NVDA

Where Does VXRT Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

VXRT is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vaxart, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Vaxart, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT)'s intrinsic value at $0.59 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.30 to $1.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.58 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VXRT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.50, 5 of 8 active models suggest VXRT may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $0.59, 18.5% above the current price of $0.50 — a consensus view that VXRT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vaxart, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for VXRT?

Vaxart, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VXRT?

CirclFi analyzes VXRT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VXRT?

Of the 8 models currently active on VXRT, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $1.65 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.30. CirclFi's published fair value for VXRT is the median of that range, $0.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 226% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VXRT a value trap in 2026?

Vaxart, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) has a median fair value of $0.59 — 18.5% above the current price of $0.50 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VXRT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VXRT valuation
  • Financial statements: Vaxart, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000072444) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VXRT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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