Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Fair Value 2026

ALNY · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) trades at $223.94, versus a $48.55 median fair value across its 8 active models — 78.3% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $26.01.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALNY
Price
$223.94
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $48.55, 78.3% below the current price of $223.94. Estimates range from $12.44 to $95.13. ALNY scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ALNY’s -78.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -61.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALNY?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($223.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.01 -88.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $51.29 -77.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $45.80 -79.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $95.13 -57.5%
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What Is ALNY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $12.44 to $95.13

CirclFi's 8 active models place Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) between $12.44 and $95.13 per share, a spread of 170% of the median. The median of that range — $48.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALNY, against a current price of $223.94.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · RCMH-DCF
$12.44median $48.55$95.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$12.44
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$95.13
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALNY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALNY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $48.55. Trading at its current price of $223.94, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -78.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $95.13 (-57.5%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $12.44 (-94.4%). This +36.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ALNY?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ALNY. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ALNY is $48.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $26.01 on its own, implying -88.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALNY Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 622 Biotechnology stocks, ALNY ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places ALNY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc., metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ALNY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALNY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scores 9.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +36.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALNY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALNY's 8 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2SPRCSciSparc Ltd.QOC 1.7HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2RYTMRhythm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9IMRXImmuneering CorporationQOC 5.0COCPCocrystal Pharma, Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: INCY · HRMY · EXEL · AUPH · SPRC · HALO · RYTM · IMRX · COCP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALNY?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALNY’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5ABNBAirbnb, Inc.QOC 9.5IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.QOC 9.5LLYEli Lilly and CompanyQOC 9.4STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5IESCIES Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TBTC · ABNB · IDXX · LLY · STRL · IESC · NVDA

Where Does ALNY Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ALNY is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY)'s intrinsic value at $48.55 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $12.44 to $95.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $26.01 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALNY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $223.94, 0 of 8 active models suggest ALNY may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $48.55, 78.3% below the current price of $223.94 — a consensus view that ALNY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for ALNY?

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALNY?

CirclFi analyzes ALNY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALNY?

Of the 8 models currently active on ALNY, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $95.13 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $12.44. CirclFi's published fair value for ALNY is the median of that range, $48.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 170% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALNY a value trap in 2026?

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) has a median fair value of $48.55 — 78.3% below the current price of $223.94 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALNY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALNY valuation
  • Financial statements: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001178670) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALNY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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