XP Inc. (XP) Fair Value 2026

XP · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, XP Inc. (XP) trades at $18.23, versus a $16.60 median fair value across its 5 active models — 8.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XP
Price
$18.23
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is XP Inc. (XP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, XP Inc. (XP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $16.60, within 8.9% of the current price of $18.23. Estimates range from $1.11 to $32.83. XP scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. XP’s -8.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy XP Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XP?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.57 -36.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.60 -8.9%
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What Is XP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.11 to $32.83

CirclFi's 5 active models place XP Inc. (XP) between $1.11 and $32.83 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $16.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XP, against a current price of $18.23.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$1.11median $16.60$32.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$1.11
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$32.83
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is XP Inc. (XP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, XP Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $16.60. Trading at $18.23, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -8.9%), as 3 of 5 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $32.83 (+80.1%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $1.11 (-93.9%). This +174.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about XP Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About XP?

5 of 13 models are currently active for XP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XP is $16.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XP Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, XP ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places XP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

XP Inc.'s positioning within the Capital Markets segment means that net interest margin (NIM) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is XP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for XP Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, XP Inc. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +174.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XP's 5 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy XP Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

TWTradeweb Markets Inc.QOC 9.3PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7SCHWThe Charles Schwab CorporationQOC 9.0FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.0HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3SLNHSoluna Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8PWCMPowerCompute, Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: TW · PIPR · HOOD · SCHW · FUTU · IBKR · HGBL · SLNH · PWCM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XP?

6 companies across all industries closest to XP’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1MAMastercard IncorporatedQOC 9.1ACIWACI Worldwide, Inc.QOC 9.1EXTRExtreme Networks, Inc.QOC 9.1AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ALSN · MA · ACIW · EXTR · AIT · NVDA

Where Does XP Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

XP is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About XP Inc.’s Valuation?

What is XP Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts XP Inc. (XP)'s intrinsic value at $16.60 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $1.11 to $32.83. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.23, 2 of 5 active models suggest XP may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $16.60, within 8.9% of the current price of $18.23 — a consensus view that XP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits XP Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for XP?

XP Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XP?

CirclFi analyzes XP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XP?

Of the 5 models currently active on XP, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $32.83 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $1.11. CirclFi's published fair value for XP is the median of that range, $16.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XP a value trap in 2026?

XP Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, XP Inc. (XP) has a median fair value of $16.60 — within 8.9% of the current price of $18.23 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XP valuation
  • Financial statements: XP Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001787425) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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