Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Fair Value 2026

FUTU · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) trades at $96.35, approximately 66% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $280.54. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FUTU
Price
$96.35
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +191.2% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($96.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $280.54 +191.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $32.06 -66.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $194.24 +101.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $123.84 +28.5%

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What Is Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $156.53, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $96.35. While the average implied return is +62.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +368.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $387.30 (+302.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $32.06 (-66.7%). This +368.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FUTU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FUTU. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FUTU's intrinsic value at $280.54, implying +191.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FUTU Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, FUTU ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places FUTU in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

Futu Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FUTU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FUTU a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Futu Holdings Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Futu Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +368.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FUTU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FUTU's 11 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Futu Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

SIEBSiebert Financial Corp.QOC 9.7BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 9.7IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation (TheQOC 9.0HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.0RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.QOC 9.0VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: SIEB · BLK · IBKR · MKTX · SCHW

See all Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Futu Holdings Limited

What is Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $280.54. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FUTU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $96.35, 6 of 11 active models suggest FUTU may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Futu Holdings Limited's business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for FUTU?

Futu Holdings Limited's QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FUTU?

CirclFi analyzes FUTU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FUTU a value trap in 2026?

Futu Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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