Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Fair Value 2026

FUTU · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) trades at $124.57, versus a $334.30 median fair value across its 4 active models — 168.4% above the current price. QOC: 9.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FUTU
Price
$124.57
Quality Score
9.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +330.0% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $334.30, 168.4% above the current price of $124.57. Estimates range from $95.05 to $535.66. FUTU scores 9.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FUTU’s +168.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Futu Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FUTU?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($124.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $535.66 +330.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $371.95 +198.6%
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What Is FUTU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $95.05 to $535.66

CirclFi's 4 active models place Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) between $95.05 and $535.66 per share, a spread of 132% of the median. The median of that range — $334.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FUTU, against a current price of $124.57.

Low · FTNNHigh · CUCE
$95.05median $334.30$535.66
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$95.05
Most bullish modelCUCE$535.66
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FUTU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FUTU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Futu Holdings Limited. Trading at $124.57 against an estimated intrinsic value of $334.30, 3 of 4 active models flag meaningful upside of +168.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $535.66 (+330.0%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $95.05 (-23.7%). This +353.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FUTU?

4 of 13 models are currently active for FUTU. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FUTU is $334.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FUTU Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, FUTU ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.8 places FUTU in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Futu Holdings Limited's positioning within the Capital Markets segment means that loan loss provisions plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including credit quality trends — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FUTU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FUTU a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Futu Holdings Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Futu Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 9.8/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +353.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FUTU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FUTU's 4 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Futu Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

SOSSOS LimitedQOC 1.4HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7PURRHyperliquid Strategies Inc.QOC 2.2TWTradeweb Markets Inc.QOC 9.3LGHLLion Group Holding Ltd.QOC 2.4XPXP Inc.QOC 9.1MCMoelis & CompanyQOC 7.5MARAMARA Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8CBLOC2 Blockchain, Inc.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: SOS · HOOD · PURR · TW · LGHL · XP · MC · MARA · CBLO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FUTU?

7 companies across all industries closest to FUTU’s Quality of Company score of 9.8/10.

KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8ANETArista Networks, Inc.QOC 9.8HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KLAC · NFLX · ADSK · ANET · HCI · IRMD · NVDA

Where Does FUTU Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

FUTU is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Futu Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU)'s intrinsic value at $334.30 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $95.05 to $535.66. The Quality of Company score is 9.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FUTU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $124.57, 3 of 4 active models suggest FUTU may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $334.30, 168.4% above the current price of $124.57 — a consensus view that FUTU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Futu Holdings Limited's business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.8 mean for FUTU?

Futu Holdings Limited's QOC of 9.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FUTU?

CirclFi analyzes FUTU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FUTU?

Of the 4 models currently active on FUTU, CUCE is the most bullish at $535.66 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $95.05. CirclFi's published fair value for FUTU is the median of that range, $334.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 132% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FUTU a value trap in 2026?

Futu Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) has a median fair value of $334.30 — 168.4% above the current price of $124.57 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FUTU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FUTU valuation
  • Financial statements: Futu Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001754581) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FUTU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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