Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) Fair Value 2026

LGHL · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) trades at $1.87, approximately 1447% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.12. QOC: 2.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LGHL
Price
$1.87
Quality Score
2.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $1.22, 34.5% below the current price of $1.87. Estimates range from $0.12 to $7.75. LGHL scores 2.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lion Group Holding Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.12 -93.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.58 -15.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$0.87 -53.7%
PWERM
Medium Conviction
$0.61 -67.3%

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What Is Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Lion Group Holding Ltd. at its current price of $1.87. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $2.12 (+13.5% average return), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +314.5% (fair value: $7.75), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -93.5% ($0.12). The spread between these extremes — +408.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LGHL?

8 of 13 models are currently active for LGHL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LGHL's intrinsic value at $0.12, implying -93.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LGHL Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, LGHL ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.2 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

Lion Group Holding Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LGHL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LGHL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Lion Group Holding Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Lion Group Holding Ltd.'s fundamental quality profile registers 2.2/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +408.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LGHL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LGHL's 8 active models, average confidence is 9%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lion Group Holding Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Lion Group Holding Ltd.

What is Lion Group Holding Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.12. The Quality of Company score is 2.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LGHL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.87, 3 of 8 active models suggest LGHL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $1.22, 34.5% below the current price of $1.87 — a consensus view that LGHL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lion Group Holding Ltd.'s business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.2 mean for LGHL?

Lion Group Holding Ltd.'s QOC of 2.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LGHL?

CirclFi analyzes LGHL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LGHL a value trap in 2026?

Lion Group Holding Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) has a median fair value of $1.22 — 34.5% below the current price of $1.87 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LGHL/ · Methodology

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