Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Fair Value 2026

HOOD · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) trades at $112.00, versus a $47.93 median fair value across its 2 active models — 57.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HOOD
Price
$112.00
Quality Score
9.7/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $47.93, 57.2% below the current price of $112.00. Estimates range from $26.09 to $69.77. HOOD scores 9.7/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HOOD’s -57.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -30.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Robinhood Markets, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HOOD?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($112.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $69.77 -37.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $26.09 -76.7%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $47.93. Trading at its current price of $112.00, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -57.2%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -37.7% (fair value: $69.77), while FTNN is the most conservative at -76.7% ($26.09). The spread between these extremes — +39.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HOOD?

2 of 13 models are currently active for HOOD. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HOOD is $47.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HOOD Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, HOOD ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places HOOD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s positioning within the Capital Markets segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HOOD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HOOD a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Robinhood Markets, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Robinhood Markets, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.7/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +39.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HOOD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HOOD's 2 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Robinhood Markets, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8TWTradeweb Markets Inc.QOC 9.3SOSSOS LimitedQOC 1.4XPXP Inc.QOC 9.1MATHMetalpha Technology Holding LimitedQOC 2.4PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.QOC 7.4BGDEBig Digital Energy, Inc.QOC 5.8CBLOC2 Blockchain, Inc.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: FUTU · TW · SOS · XP · MATH · PIPR · GS · BGDE · CBLO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HOOD?

7 companies across all industries closest to HOOD’s Quality of Company score of 9.7/10.

RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.QOC 9.7GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7NTESNetEase, Inc.QOC 9.7ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RACE · PAYC · GILD · NTES · ASML · ATAT · NVDA

Where Does HOOD Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

HOOD is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Robinhood Markets, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)'s intrinsic value at $47.93 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $26.09 to $69.77. The Quality of Company score is 9.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HOOD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $112.00, 0 of 2 active models suggest HOOD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $47.93, 57.2% below the current price of $112.00 — a consensus view that HOOD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.7 mean for HOOD?

Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s QOC of 9.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HOOD?

CirclFi analyzes HOOD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HOOD a value trap in 2026?

Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) has a median fair value of $47.93 — 57.2% below the current price of $112.00 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HOOD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HOOD valuation
  • Financial statements: Robinhood Markets, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001783879) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HOOD as of ; valuations recomputed .