ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Fair Value 2026

ASML · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) trades at $1735.01, versus a $471.55 median fair value across its 9 active models — 72.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $471.55.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASML
Price
$1735.01
Quality Score
9.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $471.55, 72.8% below the current price of $1735.01. Estimates range from $221.06 to $2274.33. ASML scores 9.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ASML’s -72.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -71.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ASML Holding N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASML?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1735.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $471.55 -72.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $284.56 -83.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $474.33 -72.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $743.16 -57.2%
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What Is ASML's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $221.06 to $2274.33

CirclFi's 9 active models place ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) between $221.06 and $2274.33 per share, a spread of 435% of the median. The median of that range — $471.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASML, against a current price of $1735.01.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$221.06median $471.55$2274.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$221.06
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2274.33
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASML. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASML, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ASML Holding N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $471.55, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $1,735.01. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-72.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +31.1% (fair value: $2,274.33), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -87.3% ($221.06). The spread between these extremes — +118.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ASML?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ASML. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASML is $471.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $471.55 on its own, implying -72.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASML Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, ASML ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places ASML in the top tier.

Within the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials space, ASML Holding N.V. competes in an environment where average selling price (ASP) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ASML a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASML a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for ASML Holding N.V.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ASML Holding N.V. is rated at 9.7/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASML valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASML's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ASML Holding N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8LRCXLam Research CorporationQOC 9.7DQDaqo New Energy Corp.QOC 2.4NVMINova Ltd.QOC 9.6ATOMAtomera IncorporatedQOC 6.1ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.QOC 9.4ACMRACM Research, Inc.QOC 8.7KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8AXTIAXT, Inc.QOC 6.7

Read investment analysis: KLAC · LRCX · DQ · NVMI · ATOM · ONTO · ACMR · KLIC · AXTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASML?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASML’s Quality of Company score of 9.7/10.

PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PTC · GILD · AVGO · HOOD · IRMD · RACE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ASML Holding N.V.’s Valuation?

What is ASML Holding N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)'s intrinsic value at $471.55 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $221.06 to $2274.33. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $471.55 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASML overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1735.01, 1 of 9 active models suggest ASML may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $471.55, 72.8% below the current price of $1735.01 — a consensus view that ASML is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ASML Holding N.V.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.7 mean for ASML?

ASML Holding N.V.'s QOC of 9.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASML?

CirclFi analyzes ASML with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASML?

Of the 9 models currently active on ASML, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $2274.33 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $221.06. CirclFi's published fair value for ASML is the median of that range, $471.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 435% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASML a value trap in 2026?

ASML Holding N.V.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has a median fair value of $471.55 — 72.8% below the current price of $1735.01 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASML/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASML valuation
  • Financial statements: ASML Holding N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000937966) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASML as of ; valuations recomputed .

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