Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Fair Value 2026

ONTO · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) trades at $292.62, versus a $73.24 median fair value across its 9 active models — 75.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $99.04.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONTO
Price
$292.62
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $73.24, 75.0% below the current price of $292.62. Estimates range from $11.60 to $512.81. ONTO scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 5/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ONTO’s -75.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector median is -71.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Onto Innovation Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ONTO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($292.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $99.04 -66.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.98 -87.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $73.24 -75.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $93.75 -68.0%
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What Is ONTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $11.60 to $512.81

CirclFi's 9 active models place Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) between $11.60 and $512.81 per share, a spread of 684% of the median. The median of that range — $73.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ONTO, against a current price of $292.62.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$11.60median $73.24$512.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$11.60
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$512.81
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ONTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ONTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Onto Innovation Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $73.24. Trading at its current price of $292.62, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -75.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $512.81 (+75.2%), versus ML-RIV at $11.60 (-96.0%). This +171.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ONTO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ONTO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ONTO is $73.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $99.04 on its own, implying -66.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONTO Rank in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials?

Among 32 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, ONTO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places ONTO in the top tier.

The Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector introduces analytical considerations specific to semiconductor company businesses. For Onto Innovation Inc., metrics like average selling price (ASP) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ONTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONTO a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Onto Innovation Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Onto Innovation Inc. scores 9.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONTO's 9 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Onto Innovation Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks with 13-model coverage

NVMINova Ltd.QOC 9.6AMATApplied Materials, Inc.QOC 9.4LRCXLam Research CorporationQOC 9.7CAMTCamtek Ltd.QOC 9.0ASMLASML Holding N.V.QOC 9.7ACLSAxcelis Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9QQnity Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3IPGPIPG Photonics CorporationQOC 7.5UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: NVMI · AMAT · LRCX · CAMT · ASML · ACLS · Q · IPGP · UCTT · KLAC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ONTO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ONTO’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4EMEEMCOR Group, Inc.QOC 9.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RMD · EME · BUKS · TT · BLBD · JFIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Onto Innovation Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Onto Innovation Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO)'s intrinsic value at $73.24 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.60 to $512.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $99.04 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $292.62, 1 of 9 active models suggest ONTO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $73.24, 75.0% below the current price of $292.62 — a consensus view that ONTO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Onto Innovation Inc.'s business model in Semiconductor Equipment & Materials.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for ONTO?

Onto Innovation Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONTO?

CirclFi analyzes ONTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ONTO?

Of the 9 models currently active on ONTO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $512.81 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $11.60. CirclFi's published fair value for ONTO is the median of that range, $73.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 684% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ONTO a value trap in 2026?

Onto Innovation Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) has a median fair value of $73.24 — 75.0% below the current price of $292.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ONTO valuation
  • Financial statements: Onto Innovation Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000704532) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ONTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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