Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Fair Value 2026

MCRI · Resorts & Casinos ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) trades at $123.62, versus a $84.90 median fair value across its 10 active models — 31.3% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $102.22.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCRI
Price
$123.62
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +10.8% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $84.90, 31.3% below the current price of $123.62. Estimates range from $40.98 to $136.96. MCRI scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MCRI’s -31.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Resorts & Casinos sector median is +5.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MCRI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($123.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $102.22 -17.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $81.26 -34.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $136.96 +10.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.86 -65.3%
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What Is MCRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $40.98 to $136.96

CirclFi's 10 active models place Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) between $40.98 and $136.96 per share, a spread of 113% of the median. The median of that range — $84.90 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MCRI, against a current price of $123.62.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$40.98median $84.90$136.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$40.98
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$136.96
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MCRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MCRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $84.90, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $123.62. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-31.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $136.96 (+10.8%), versus Markov DDM at $40.98 (-66.9%). This +77.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MCRI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MCRI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MCRI is $84.90 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $102.22 on its own, implying -17.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCRI Rank in Resorts & Casinos?

Among 18 Resorts & Casinos stocks, MCRI ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places MCRI in the top tier.

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MCRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCRI a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. is rated at 9.3/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +77.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCRI's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Resorts & Casinos Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Resorts & Casinos stocks with 13-model coverage

TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment LimitedQOC 2.8RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.3BALYBally's CorporationQOC 5.5MTNVail Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.8BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.9VACMarriott Vacations Worldwide CorporationQOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: TBTC · LVS · MLCO · RRR · BALY · MTN · BYD · CZR · VAC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MCRI?

7 companies across all industries closest to MCRI’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3UIUbiquiti Inc.QOC 9.3GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NMIH · EAT · SBS · UI · GWW · MEDP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)'s intrinsic value at $84.90 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $40.98 to $136.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $102.22 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $123.62, 1 of 10 active models suggest MCRI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $84.90, 31.3% below the current price of $123.62 — a consensus view that MCRI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s business model in Resorts & Casinos.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for MCRI?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCRI?

CirclFi analyzes MCRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MCRI?

Of the 10 models currently active on MCRI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $136.96 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $40.98. CirclFi's published fair value for MCRI is the median of that range, $84.90, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 113% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MCRI a value trap in 2026?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has a median fair value of $84.90 — 31.3% below the current price of $123.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MCRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MCRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000907242) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MCRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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