Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Fair Value 2026

MCRI · Hotels & Motels ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) trades at $124.19, approximately 3% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $127.62. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCRI
Price
$124.19
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +35.9% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($124.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $127.62 +2.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $33.98 -72.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $84.95 -31.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $168.72 +35.9%

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What Is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. at its current price of $124.19. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $88.07 (-29.1% average return), with 9 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $168.72 (+35.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $18.61 (-85.0%). This +120.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MCRI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MCRI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MCRI's intrinsic value at $127.62, implying +2.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCRI Rank in Hotels & Motels?

Among 28 Hotels & Motels stocks, MCRI ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places MCRI in the top tier.

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MCRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCRI a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. is rated at 9.6/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +120.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCRI's 13 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Hotels & Motels Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Hotels & Motels stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimiteQOC 10.0HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.6HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.6BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 8.4CHHChoice Hotels International, InQOC 8.3RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.2GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group LtdQOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: ATAT · HTHT · WH · HLT · BYD

Frequently Asked Questions About Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

What is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $127.62. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $124.19, 3 of 13 active models suggest MCRI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s business model in Hotels & Motels.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for MCRI?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCRI?

CirclFi analyzes MCRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MCRI a value trap in 2026?

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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