GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG) Fair Value 2026

GHG · Hotels & Motels ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG) trades at $1.19. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GHG
Price
$1.19
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +489.8% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$5.54 +365.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$4.57 +284.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$7.01 +489.8%
EROIC Spread
Medium Conviction
$2.69 +126.1%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $3.66. At a current market price of $1.19, 9 of 11 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +208.0%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +489.8% (fair value: $7.01), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -46.9% ($0.63). The spread between these extremes — +536.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GHG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for GHG. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GHG Rank in Hotels & Motels?

Among 28 Hotels & Motels stocks, GHG ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places GHG in the top tier.

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GHG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GHG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +536.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GHG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GHG's 11 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Hotels & Motels Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Hotels & Motels stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ATAT · MCRI · HTHT · WH · HLT

Frequently Asked Questions About GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd

What is GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd (GHG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GHG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.19, 9 of 11 active models suggest GHG may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd's business model in Hotels & Motels.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for GHG?

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GHG?

CirclFi analyzes GHG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GHG a value trap in 2026?

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on GHG.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access