GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) Fair Value 2026

GHG · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) trades at $1.08, versus a $3.24 median fair value across its 11 active models — 200.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.26.

Key Facts

Ticker
GHG
Price
$1.08
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +247.0% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $3.24, 200.0% above the current price of $1.08. Estimates range from $0.11 to $5.42. GHG scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GHG’s +200.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GHG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.26 +202.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.75 +247.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.24 +200.0%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $2.29 +111.6%
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What Is GHG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.11 to $5.42

CirclFi's 11 active models place GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) between $0.11 and $5.42 per share, a spread of 164% of the median. The median of that range — $3.24 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GHG, against a current price of $1.08.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$0.11median $3.24$5.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.11
Most bullish modelPWERM$5.42
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GHG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GHG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3.24. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $1.08 (implied upside of +200.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +402.0% (fair value: $5.42), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -89.7% ($0.11). The spread between these extremes — +491.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GHG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for GHG. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GHG is $3.24 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.26 on its own, implying +202.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GHG Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, GHG ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GHG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GHG a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +491.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GHG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GHG's 11 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLCQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: ATAT · HTHT · CHH · HLT · WH · MAR · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG · IHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GHG?

7 companies across all industries closest to GHG’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

DECDiversified Energy CompanyQOC 7.2MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.2AEBIAebi Schmidt Holding AGQOC 7.2CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2DOUGDouglas Elliman Inc.QOC 7.2CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DEC · MTX · AEBI · CBL · DOUG · CTRN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG)'s intrinsic value at $3.24 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.11 to $5.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.26 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GHG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.08, 8 of 11 active models suggest GHG may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $3.24, 200.0% above the current price of $1.08 — a consensus view that GHG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for GHG?

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GHG?

CirclFi analyzes GHG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GHG?

Of the 11 models currently active on GHG, PWERM is the most bullish at $5.42 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.11. CirclFi's published fair value for GHG is the median of that range, $3.24, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 164% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GHG a value trap in 2026?

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. (GHG) has a median fair value of $3.24 — 200.0% above the current price of $1.08 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GHG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GHG valuation
  • Financial statements: GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001724755) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GHG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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