Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) Fair Value 2026

ATAT · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) trades at $34.69, versus a $44.92 median fair value across its 7 active models — 29.5% above the current price. QOC: 9.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $51.18.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATAT
Price
$34.69
Quality Score
9.7/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +80.6% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $44.92, 29.5% above the current price of $34.69. Estimates range from $14.80 to $62.65. ATAT scores 9.7/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ATAT’s +29.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATAT?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.18 +47.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $45.29 +30.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $62.65 +80.6%
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What Is ATAT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $14.80 to $62.65

CirclFi's 7 active models place Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) between $14.80 and $62.65 per share, a spread of 107% of the median. The median of that range — $44.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATAT, against a current price of $34.69.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$14.80median $44.92$62.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$14.80
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$62.65
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATAT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATAT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $44.92. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $34.69 (implied upside of +29.5%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +80.6% (fair value: $62.65), while EROIC is the most conservative at -57.3% ($14.80). The spread between these extremes — +137.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ATAT?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ATAT. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ATAT is $44.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $51.18 on its own, implying +47.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATAT Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, ATAT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.7 places ATAT in the top tier.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ATAT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATAT a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited scores 9.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATAT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATAT's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLCQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: HTHT · CHH · HLT · WH · MAR · GHG · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG · IHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATAT?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATAT’s Quality of Company score of 9.7/10.

NTESNetEase, Inc.QOC 9.7FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.QOC 9.7LRCXLam Research CorporationQOC 9.7RACEFerrari N.V.QOC 9.7HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTES · FTNT · PAYC · LRCX · RACE · HRTG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT)'s intrinsic value at $44.92 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.80 to $62.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $51.18 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATAT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.69, 5 of 7 active models suggest ATAT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $44.92, 29.5% above the current price of $34.69 — a consensus view that ATAT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.7 mean for ATAT?

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's QOC of 9.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATAT?

CirclFi analyzes ATAT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATAT?

Of the 7 models currently active on ATAT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $62.65 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $14.80. CirclFi's published fair value for ATAT is the median of that range, $44.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 107% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATAT a value trap in 2026?

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) has a median fair value of $44.92 — 29.5% above the current price of $34.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATAT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATAT valuation
  • Financial statements: Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001853717) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATAT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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