InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Fair Value 2026

IHG · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) trades at $162.38, versus a $127.39 median fair value across its 2 active models — 21.5% below the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
IHG
Price
$162.38
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +45.2% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $127.39, 21.5% below the current price of $162.38. Estimates range from $19.04 to $235.73. IHG scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. IHG’s -21.5% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IHG?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($162.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $19.04 -88.3%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $235.73 +45.2%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $127.39, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $162.38. While the median implied return is -21.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +133.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $235.73 (+45.2%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $19.04 (-88.3%). This +133.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About IHG?

2 of 13 models are currently active for IHG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IHG is $127.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IHG Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, IHG ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is IHG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IHG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for InterContinental Hotels Group PLC. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC earns a quality score of 2.6/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IHG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IHG's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: ATAT · HTHT · CHH · HLT · WH · MAR · GHG · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IHG?

7 companies across all industries closest to IHG’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

SLGLSol-Gel Technologies Ltd.QOC 2.6HKITHitek Global Inc.QOC 2.6LSPDLightspeed Commerce Inc.QOC 2.6LGOLargo Inc.QOC 2.6AAUCAllied Gold CorporationQOC 2.6EHGOEshallgo Inc.QOC 2.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SLGL · HKIT · LSPD · LGO · AAUC · EHGO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About InterContinental Hotels Group PLC’s Valuation?

What is InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)'s intrinsic value at $127.39 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $19.04 to $235.73. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IHG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $162.38, 1 of 2 active models suggest IHG may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $127.39, 21.5% below the current price of $162.38 — a consensus view that IHG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for IHG?

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IHG?

CirclFi analyzes IHG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is IHG a value trap in 2026?

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) has a median fair value of $127.39 — 21.5% below the current price of $162.38 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IHG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IHG valuation
  • Financial statements: InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000858446) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IHG as of ; valuations recomputed .