Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) Fair Value 2026

CHH · Lodging ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) trades at $108.54, versus a $94.00 median fair value across its 10 active models — 13.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CHH
Price
$108.54
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +62.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $94.00, 13.4% below the current price of $108.54. Estimates range from $28.01 to $234.44. CHH scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CHH’s -13.4% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Choice Hotels International, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CHH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($108.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.34 -40.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $86.37 -20.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $176.38 +62.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.01 -74.2%
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What Is CHH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $28.01 to $234.44

CirclFi's 10 active models place Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) between $28.01 and $234.44 per share, a spread of 220% of the median. The median of that range — $94.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CHH, against a current price of $108.54.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$28.01median $94.00$234.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$28.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$234.44
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CHH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CHH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Choice Hotels International, Inc. at its current price of $108.54. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $94.00 (-13.4% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +116.0% (fair value: $234.44), while EROIC is the most conservative at -74.2% ($28.01). The spread between these extremes — +190.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CHH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CHH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CHH is $94.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CHH Rank in Lodging?

Among 12 Lodging stocks, CHH ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places CHH in the top tier.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CHH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CHH a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Choice Hotels International, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Choice Hotels International, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +190.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CHH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CHH's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Choice Hotels International, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Lodging Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Lodging stocks with 13-model coverage

ATATAtour Lifestyle Holdings LimitedQOC 9.7HTHTH World Group LimitedQOC 8.9HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.QOC 8.2WHWyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.9MARMarriott International, Inc.QOC 7.8GHGGreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd.QOC 7.2HHyatt Hotels CorporationQOC 6.6CVEOCiveo CorporationQOC 6.3PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4INTGThe InterGroup CorporationQOC 5.4IHGInterContinental Hotels Group PLCQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: ATAT · HTHT · HLT · WH · MAR · GHG · H · CVEO · PRSI · INTG · IHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CHH?

7 companies across all industries closest to CHH’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

NLCPNewLake Capital Partners, Inc.QOC 8.7SSBSouthState Bank CorporationQOC 8.7MCKMcKesson CorporationQOC 8.7AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.QOC 8.7RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NLCP · SSB · MCK · AMZN · RBC · ROK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Choice Hotels International, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Choice Hotels International, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)'s intrinsic value at $94.00 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $28.01 to $234.44. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CHH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $108.54, 2 of 10 active models suggest CHH may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $94.00, 13.4% below the current price of $108.54 — a consensus view that CHH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Choice Hotels International, Inc.'s business model in Lodging.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for CHH?

Choice Hotels International, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CHH?

CirclFi analyzes CHH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CHH?

Of the 10 models currently active on CHH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $234.44 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $28.01. CirclFi's published fair value for CHH is the median of that range, $94.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 220% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CHH a value trap in 2026?

Choice Hotels International, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH) has a median fair value of $94.00 — 13.4% below the current price of $108.54 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CHH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CHH valuation
  • Financial statements: Choice Hotels International, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001046311) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CHH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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