McKesson Corporation (MCK) Fair Value 2026

MCK · Medical Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, McKesson Corporation (MCK) trades at $890.51, versus a $1087.98 median fair value across its 11 active models — 22.2% above the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1390.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCK
Price
$890.51
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +140.8% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is McKesson Corporation (MCK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, McKesson Corporation (MCK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $1087.98, 22.2% above the current price of $890.51. Estimates range from $268.92 to $2340.69. MCK scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MCK’s +22.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy McKesson Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MCK?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($890.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1390.53 +56.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $268.92 -69.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1091.14 +22.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $2144.04 +140.8%
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What Is MCK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $268.92 to $2340.69

CirclFi's 11 active models place McKesson Corporation (MCK) between $268.92 and $2340.69 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $1087.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MCK, against a current price of $890.51.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$268.92median $1087.98$2340.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$268.92
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$2340.69
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MCK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MCK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is McKesson Corporation (MCK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on McKesson Corporation at $890.51. With an estimated intrinsic value of $1,087.98 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +22.2%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $2,340.69 (+162.8%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $268.92 (-69.8%). This +232.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about McKesson Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MCK?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MCK. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MCK is $1087.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1390.53 on its own, implying +56.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCK Rank in Medical Distribution?

Among 13 Medical Distribution stocks, MCK ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places MCK in the top tier.

McKesson Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MCK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCK a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for McKesson Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, McKesson Corporation is rated at 8.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +232.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCK's 11 active models, average confidence is 57%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy McKesson Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Medical Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

AHGAkso Health GroupQOC 2.2CORCencora, Inc.QOC 8.3HKPDCellyan Biotechnology Co., LtdQOC 2.5CAHCardinal Health, Inc.QOC 7.9MEDSDataMEDS AI, Inc.QOC 4.3HSICHenry Schein, Inc.QOC 7.3FOCLEDAP TMS S.A.QOC 5.8COSMCosmos Health Inc.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: AHG · COR · HKPD · CAH · MEDS · HSIC · FOCL · COSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MCK?

7 companies across all industries closest to MCK’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7NLCPNewLake Capital Partners, Inc.QOC 8.7TDWTidewater Inc.QOC 8.7CHHChoice Hotels International, Inc.QOC 8.7ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7SSBSouthState Bank CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RBC · NLCP · TDW · CHH · ULTA · SSB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About McKesson Corporation’s Valuation?

What is McKesson Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts McKesson Corporation (MCK)'s intrinsic value at $1087.98 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $268.92 to $2340.69. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1390.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $890.51, 7 of 11 active models suggest MCK may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $1087.98, 22.2% above the current price of $890.51 — a consensus view that MCK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits McKesson Corporation's business model in Medical Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for MCK?

McKesson Corporation's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCK?

CirclFi analyzes MCK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MCK?

Of the 11 models currently active on MCK, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $2340.69 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $268.92. CirclFi's published fair value for MCK is the median of that range, $1087.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MCK a value trap in 2026?

McKesson Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, McKesson Corporation (MCK) has a median fair value of $1087.98 — 22.2% above the current price of $890.51 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MCK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MCK valuation
  • Financial statements: McKesson Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000927653) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MCK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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