HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Fair Value 2026

DINO · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) trades at $99.71, versus a $72.36 median fair value across its 12 active models — 27.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $30.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
DINO
Price
$99.71
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +77.3% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $72.36, 27.4% below the current price of $99.71. Estimates range from $19.25 to $176.77. DINO scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DINO’s -27.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HF Sinclair Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DINO?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($99.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.35 -69.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.94 -53.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $73.79 -26.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $176.77 +77.3%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is DINO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $19.25 to $176.77

CirclFi's 12 active models place HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) between $19.25 and $176.77 per share, a spread of 218% of the median. The median of that range — $72.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DINO, against a current price of $99.71.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$19.25median $72.36$176.77
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$19.25
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$176.77
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DINO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DINO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HF Sinclair Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $72.36. Trading at $99.71, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +77.3% (fair value: $176.77), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -80.7% ($19.25). The spread between these extremes — +158.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DINO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for DINO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DINO is $72.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $30.35 on its own, implying -69.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DINO Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, DINO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places DINO in the top tier.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For HF Sinclair Corporation, metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DINO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DINO a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for HF Sinclair Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HF Sinclair Corporation scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +158.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DINO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DINO's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HF Sinclair Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7PSXPhillips 66QOC 8.3DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6VLOValero Energy CorporationQOC 8.4WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: SGU · SUN · PSX · DK · VLO · WKC · CVI · CLNE · PARR · UGP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DINO?

7 companies across all industries closest to DINO’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.QOC 8.1TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp.QOC 8.1ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc.QOC 8.1LIVNLivaNova PLCQOC 8.1OPBKOP BancorpQOC 8.1CZNCCitizens & Northern CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BBWI · TFPM · ICE · LIVN · OPBK · CZNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About HF Sinclair Corporation’s Valuation?

What is HF Sinclair Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)'s intrinsic value at $72.36 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $19.25 to $176.77. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $30.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DINO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $99.71, 3 of 12 active models suggest DINO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $72.36, 27.4% below the current price of $99.71 — a consensus view that DINO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HF Sinclair Corporation's business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for DINO?

HF Sinclair Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DINO?

CirclFi analyzes DINO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DINO?

Of the 12 models currently active on DINO, First Chicago is the most bullish at $176.77 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $19.25. CirclFi's published fair value for DINO is the median of that range, $72.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 218% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DINO a value trap in 2026?

HF Sinclair Corporation's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) has a median fair value of $72.36 — 27.4% below the current price of $99.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DINO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DINO valuation
  • Financial statements: HF Sinclair Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001915657) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DINO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on DINO.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for DINO Unlock All 12 — $39/mo