Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Fair Value 2026

GEL · Oil & Gas Midstream ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) trades at $16.06, versus a $17.04 median fair value across its 5 active models — 6.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GEL
Price
$16.06
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +169.1% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $17.04, within 6.1% of the current price of $16.06. Estimates range from $1.34 to $43.22. GEL scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GEL’s +6.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Midstream sector median is -12.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Genesis Energy, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GEL?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.99 +12.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $43.22 +169.1%
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What Is GEL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.34 to $43.22

CirclFi's 5 active models place Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) between $1.34 and $43.22 per share, a spread of 246% of the median. The median of that range — $17.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GEL, against a current price of $16.06.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · First Chicago
$1.34median $17.04$43.22
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.34
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$43.22
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GEL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GEL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Genesis Energy, L.P. at $16.06. With an estimated intrinsic value of $17.04 and 3 of 5 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +6.1%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $43.22 (+169.1%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $1.34 (-91.6%). This +260.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Genesis Energy, L.P.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GEL?

5 of 13 models are currently active for GEL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GEL is $17.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GEL Rank in Oil & Gas Midstream?

Among 55 Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, GEL ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks →

Genesis Energy, L.P.'s positioning within the Oil & Gas Midstream segment means that production decline rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GEL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GEL a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Genesis Energy, L.P.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genesis Energy, L.P. scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +260.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GEL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GEL's 5 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genesis Energy, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Midstream Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Midstream stocks with 13-model coverage

TENTsakos Energy Navigation LimitedQOC 6.4MMLPMartin Midstream Partners L.P.QOC 6.1VNOMViper Energy, Inc.QOC 6.7NGLNGL Energy Partners LPQOC 5.8NATNordic American Tankers LimitedQOC 6.7SUNCSunocoCorp LLCQOC 5.8CMBTCmb.Tech NVQOC 3.0WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4PXSPyxis Tankers Inc.QOC 7.9HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: TEN · MMLP · VNOM · NGL · NAT · SUNC · CMBT · WMB · PXS · HESM · FLNG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GEL?

7 companies across all industries closest to GEL’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

LGNLegence Corp.QOC 6.3OSSOne Stop Systems, Inc.QOC 6.3NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3CHRSCoherus Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.3ACVAACV Auctions Inc.QOC 6.3ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LGN · OSS · NNUP · CHRS · ACVA · ASTS · NVDA

Where Does GEL Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas Midstream Rankings?

GEL is ranked against every other Oil & Gas Midstream stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas Midstream stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Genesis Energy, L.P.’s Valuation?

What is Genesis Energy, L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)'s intrinsic value at $17.04 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.34 to $43.22. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GEL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.06, 3 of 5 active models suggest GEL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $17.04, within 6.1% of the current price of $16.06 — a consensus view that GEL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genesis Energy, L.P.'s business model in Oil & Gas Midstream.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for GEL?

Genesis Energy, L.P.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GEL?

CirclFi analyzes GEL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GEL?

Of the 5 models currently active on GEL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $43.22 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.34. CirclFi's published fair value for GEL is the median of that range, $17.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 246% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GEL a value trap in 2026?

Genesis Energy, L.P.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) has a median fair value of $17.04 — within 6.1% of the current price of $16.06 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GEL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GEL valuation
  • Financial statements: Genesis Energy, L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001022321) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GEL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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