Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) Fair Value 2026

COLM · Apparel Manufacturing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) trades at $56.84, versus a $49.14 median fair value across its 11 active models — 13.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $42.16.

Key Facts

Ticker
COLM
Price
$56.84
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $49.14, 13.5% below the current price of $56.84. Estimates range from $15.87 to $101.24. COLM scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. COLM’s -13.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Apparel Manufacturing sector median is -12.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Columbia Sportswear Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give COLM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($56.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.16 -25.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.10 -1.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $48.77 -14.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.11 -36.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is COLM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $15.87 to $101.24

CirclFi's 11 active models place Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) between $15.87 and $101.24 per share, a spread of 174% of the median. The median of that range — $49.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for COLM, against a current price of $56.84.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$15.87median $49.14$101.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$15.87
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$101.24
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for COLM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on COLM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Columbia Sportswear Company at its current price of $56.84. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $49.14 (-13.5% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $101.24 (+78.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $15.87 (-72.1%). This +150.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About COLM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for COLM. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for COLM is $49.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $42.16 on its own, implying -25.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does COLM Rank in Apparel Manufacturing?

Among 25 Apparel Manufacturing stocks, COLM ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places COLM in the top tier.

Within the Apparel Manufacturing space, Columbia Sportswear Company competes in an environment where gross margin expansion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is COLM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COLM a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Columbia Sportswear Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Columbia Sportswear Company is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every COLM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across COLM's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Columbia Sportswear Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Manufacturing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Apparel Manufacturing stocks with 13-model coverage

KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.QOC 9.0LEVILevi Strauss & Co.QOC 8.5RLRalph Lauren CorporationQOC 9.3FIGSFIGS, Inc.QOC 8.1JXGJX Luxventure Group Inc.QOC 2.0ZGNErmenegildo Zegna N.V.QOC 7.9GIIIG-III Apparel Group, Ltd.QOC 7.7LAKELakeland Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6PMNTPerfect Moment Ltd. Common StockQOC 5.0

Read investment analysis: KTB · LEVI · RL · FIGS · JXG · ZGN · GIII · LAKE · PMNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to COLM?

7 companies across all industries closest to COLM’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

CUBECubeSmartQOC 8.6RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.QOC 8.6CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.QOC 8.6BSVNBank7 Corp.QOC 8.6LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6IHiHuman Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CUBE · RJF · CTRE · BSVN · LVS · IH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Columbia Sportswear Company’s Valuation?

What is Columbia Sportswear Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)'s intrinsic value at $49.14 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.87 to $101.24. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $42.16 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is COLM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $56.84, 2 of 11 active models suggest COLM may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $49.14, 13.5% below the current price of $56.84 — a consensus view that COLM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Columbia Sportswear Company's business model in Apparel Manufacturing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for COLM?

Columbia Sportswear Company's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on COLM?

CirclFi analyzes COLM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on COLM?

Of the 11 models currently active on COLM, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $101.24 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $15.87. CirclFi's published fair value for COLM is the median of that range, $49.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 174% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is COLM a value trap in 2026?

Columbia Sportswear Company's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) has a median fair value of $49.14 — 13.5% below the current price of $56.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/COLM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this COLM valuation
  • Financial statements: Columbia Sportswear Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001050797) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for COLM as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on COLM.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for COLM Unlock All 11 — $39/mo