Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Fair Value 2026

GOOS · Apparel Manufacturing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) trades at $8.10, versus a $11.89 median fair value across its 10 active models — 46.8% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
GOOS
Price
$8.10
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +49.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $11.89, 46.8% above the current price of $8.10. Estimates range from $2.76 to $22.96. GOOS scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GOOS’s +46.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Manufacturing sector median is -12.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GOOS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.09 +49.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.88 +34.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.68 +44.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.66 -17.8%
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What Is GOOS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.76 to $22.96

CirclFi's 10 active models place Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) between $2.76 and $22.96 per share, a spread of 170% of the median. The median of that range — $11.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GOOS, against a current price of $8.10.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$2.76median $11.89$22.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.76
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$22.96
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GOOS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GOOS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Canada Goose Holdings Inc.. Trading at $8.10 against an estimated intrinsic value of $11.89, 8 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +46.8% at the median. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $22.96 (+183.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.76 (-66.0%). This +249.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GOOS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GOOS. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GOOS is $11.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.09 on its own, implying +49.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GOOS Rank in Apparel Manufacturing?

Among 25 Apparel Manufacturing stocks, GOOS ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s positioning within the Apparel Manufacturing segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GOOS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GOOS a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Canada Goose Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Canada Goose Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +249.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GOOS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GOOS's 10 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Manufacturing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Manufacturing stocks with 13-model coverage

ZGNErmenegildo Zegna N.V.QOC 7.9SGCSuperior Group of Companies, Inc.QOC 7.7FIGSFIGS, Inc.QOC 8.1GIIIG-III Apparel Group, Ltd.QOC 7.7LEVILevi Strauss & Co.QOC 8.5JLJ-Long Group LimitedQOC 7.6NCINeo-Concept International Group Holdings LimitedQOC 7.3UAUnder Armour, Inc.QOC 5.8JXGJX Luxventure Group Inc.QOC 2.0RLRalph Lauren CorporationQOC 9.3KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: ZGN · SGC · FIGS · GIII · LEVI · JL · NCI · UA · JXG · RL · KTB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GOOS?

7 companies across all industries closest to GOOS’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

VSXYVictorias Secret & Co.QOC 7.9HCKTThe Hackett Group, Inc.QOC 7.9VTMXCorporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 7.9HNVRHanover Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.QOC 7.9LTHLife Time Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VSXY · HCKT · VTMX · HNVR · AJG · LTH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Canada Goose Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)'s intrinsic value at $11.89 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.76 to $22.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GOOS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.10, 8 of 10 active models suggest GOOS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $11.89, 46.8% above the current price of $8.10 — a consensus view that GOOS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s business model in Apparel Manufacturing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for GOOS?

Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GOOS?

CirclFi analyzes GOOS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GOOS?

Of the 10 models currently active on GOOS, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $22.96 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.76. CirclFi's published fair value for GOOS is the median of that range, $11.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 170% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GOOS a value trap in 2026?

Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) has a median fair value of $11.89 — 46.8% above the current price of $8.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GOOS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GOOS valuation
  • Financial statements: Canada Goose Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001690511) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GOOS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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