Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Fair Value 2026

MDLZ · Confectioners ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) trades at $62.43, versus a $51.06 median fair value across its 9 active models — 18.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDLZ
Price
$62.43
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $51.06, 18.2% below the current price of $62.43. Estimates range from $19.96 to $128.48. MDLZ scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MDLZ’s -18.2% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mondelez International, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDLZ?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($62.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.75 -34.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $39.51 -36.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $51.06 -18.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.96 -68.0%
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What Is MDLZ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $19.96 to $128.48

CirclFi's 9 active models place Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) between $19.96 and $128.48 per share, a spread of 213% of the median. The median of that range — $51.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDLZ, against a current price of $62.43.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$19.96median $51.06$128.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$19.96
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$128.48
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDLZ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDLZ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mondelez International, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $51.06, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $62.43. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-18.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $128.48 (+105.8%), versus EROIC at $19.96 (-68.0%). This +173.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MDLZ?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MDLZ. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MDLZ is $51.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.75 on its own, implying -34.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDLZ Rank in Confectioners?

Among 5 Confectioners stocks, MDLZ ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Mondelez International, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MDLZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDLZ a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Mondelez International, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Mondelez International, Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +173.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDLZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDLZ's 9 active models, average confidence is 61%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mondelez International, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Confectioners Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Confectioners stocks with 13-model coverage

TRTootsie Roll Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6HSYThe Hershey CompanyQOC 8.2RMCFRocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc.QOC 5.2SOWGSow Good Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: TR · HSY · RMCF · SOWG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDLZ?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDLZ’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

INTTInTest CorporationQOC 7.6RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6QDMIQDM International Inc.QOC 7.6TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6PFSBPFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.6QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INTT · RDN · QDMI · TXG · PFSB · QSR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mondelez International, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mondelez International, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)'s intrinsic value at $51.06 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $19.96 to $128.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDLZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $62.43, 2 of 9 active models suggest MDLZ may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $51.06, 18.2% below the current price of $62.43 — a consensus view that MDLZ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mondelez International, Inc.'s business model in Confectioners.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for MDLZ?

Mondelez International, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDLZ?

CirclFi analyzes MDLZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDLZ?

Of the 9 models currently active on MDLZ, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $128.48 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $19.96. CirclFi's published fair value for MDLZ is the median of that range, $51.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 213% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDLZ a value trap in 2026?

Mondelez International, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) has a median fair value of $51.06 — 18.2% below the current price of $62.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDLZ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDLZ valuation
  • Financial statements: Mondelez International, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001103982) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDLZ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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