The Hershey Company (HSY) Fair Value 2026

HSY · Confectioners ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Hershey Company (HSY) trades at $181.32, versus a $213.68 median fair value across its 10 active models — 17.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $221.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
HSY
Price
$181.32
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +92.5% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Hershey Company (HSY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Hershey Company (HSY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $213.68, 17.8% above the current price of $181.32. Estimates range from $43.07 to $377.14. HSY scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HSY’s +17.8% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Hershey Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HSY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($181.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $221.99 +22.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $143.26 -21.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $205.57 +13.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $348.98 +92.5%
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What Is HSY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $43.07 to $377.14

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Hershey Company (HSY) between $43.07 and $377.14 per share, a spread of 156% of the median. The median of that range — $213.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HSY, against a current price of $181.32.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$43.07median $213.68$377.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$43.07
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$377.14
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HSY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HSY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Hershey Company (HSY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Hershey Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $213.68. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $181.32 (implied upside of +17.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 10 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +108.0% (fair value: $377.14), while EROIC is the most conservative at -76.2% ($43.07). The spread between these extremes — +184.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HSY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HSY. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HSY is $213.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $221.99 on its own, implying +22.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HSY Rank in Confectioners?

Among 5 Confectioners stocks, HSY ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places HSY in the top tier.

The Hershey Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HSY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HSY a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Hershey Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Hershey Company scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +184.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HSY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HSY's 10 active models, average confidence is 60%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Hershey Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Confectioners Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Confectioners stocks with 13-model coverage

TRTootsie Roll Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6MDLZMondelez International, Inc.QOC 7.6RMCFRocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc.QOC 5.2SOWGSow Good Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: TR · MDLZ · RMCF · SOWG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HSY?

7 companies across all industries closest to HSY’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2CNXNPC Connection, Inc.QOC 8.2STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.2GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City LimitedQOC 8.2PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARLP · CNXN · STLD · GPK · CP · PSIX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Hershey Company’s Valuation?

What is The Hershey Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Hershey Company (HSY)'s intrinsic value at $213.68 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $43.07 to $377.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $221.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HSY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $181.32, 6 of 10 active models suggest HSY may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $213.68, 17.8% above the current price of $181.32 — a consensus view that HSY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Hershey Company's business model in Confectioners.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for HSY?

The Hershey Company's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HSY?

CirclFi analyzes HSY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HSY?

Of the 10 models currently active on HSY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $377.14 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $43.07. CirclFi's published fair value for HSY is the median of that range, $213.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 156% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HSY a value trap in 2026?

The Hershey Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Hershey Company (HSY) has a median fair value of $213.68 — 17.8% above the current price of $181.32 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HSY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HSY valuation
  • Financial statements: The Hershey Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000047111) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HSY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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