John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Fair Value 2026

JBSS · Sugar & Confectionery Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) trades at $86.56, approximately 80% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $48.17. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JBSS
Price
$86.56
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +6.9% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($86.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $48.17 -44.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $42.97 -50.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $55.57 -35.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $92.54 +6.9%

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What Is John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $60.63. Trading at $86.56, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -30.0%), as 9 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $110.51 (+27.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $8.66 (-90.0%). This +117.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About JBSS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for JBSS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates JBSS's intrinsic value at $48.17, implying -44.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JBSS Rank in Sugar & Confectionery Products?

Among 4 Sugar & Confectionery Products stocks, JBSS ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places JBSS in the top tier.

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is JBSS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JBSS a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +117.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JBSS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JBSS's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Sugar & Confectionery Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Sugar & Confectionery Products stocks with 13-model coverage

HSYThe Hershey CompanyQOC 9.3TRTootsie Roll Industries, Inc.QOC 9.1RMCFRocky Mountain Chocolate FactorQOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: HSY · TR · RMCF

Frequently Asked Questions About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.

What is John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $48.17. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JBSS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $86.56, 3 of 13 active models suggest JBSS may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s business model in Sugar & Confectionery Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for JBSS?

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JBSS?

CirclFi analyzes JBSS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is JBSS a value trap in 2026?

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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