Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Fair Value 2026

FRPT · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) trades at $70.82, versus a $22.17 median fair value across its 10 active models — 68.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
FRPT
Price
$70.82
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $22.17, 68.7% below the current price of $70.82. Estimates range from $5.19 to $35.17. FRPT scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FRPT’s -68.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Freshpet, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FRPT?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.19 -92.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $19.95 -71.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $35.17 -50.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.40 -65.5%
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What Is FRPT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $5.19 to $35.17

CirclFi's 10 active models place Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) between $5.19 and $35.17 per share, a spread of 135% of the median. The median of that range — $22.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FRPT, against a current price of $70.82.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$5.19median $22.17$35.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$5.19
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$35.17
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FRPT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FRPT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Freshpet, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $22.17. Trading at its current price of $70.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -68.7%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -50.3% (fair value: $35.17), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -92.7% ($5.19). The spread between these extremes — +42.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FRPT?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FRPT. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FRPT is $22.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.19 on its own, implying -92.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FRPT Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, FRPT ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Freshpet, Inc.'s positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FRPT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FRPT a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Freshpet, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Freshpet, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +42.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FRPT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FRPT's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Freshpet, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

LFVNLifeVantage CorporationQOC 7.9HRLHormel Foods CorporationQOC 7.8JBSSJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.QOC 7.9LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.QOC 7.9JBSJBS N.V.QOC 7.5BHSTBioHarvest Sciences Inc. Common StockQOC 6.2TRWDTradewinds UniversalQOC 5.1PAVSParanovus Entertainment Technology Ltd.QOC 1.9PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: LFVN · HRL · JBSS · LW · SFD · JBS · BHST · TRWD · PAVS · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FRPT?

7 companies across all industries closest to FRPT’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

WEYSWeyco Group, Inc.QOC 7.9PLUSePlus inc.QOC 7.9EUBGEntrepreneur Universe Bright GroupQOC 7.9VNOVornado Realty TrustQOC 7.9HBIAHills BancorporationQOC 7.9ACNBACNB CorporationQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WEYS · PLUS · EUBG · VNO · HBIA · ACNB · NVDA

Where Does FRPT Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

FRPT is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Freshpet, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Freshpet, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT)'s intrinsic value at $22.17 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.19 to $35.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FRPT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.82, 0 of 10 active models suggest FRPT may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $22.17, 68.7% below the current price of $70.82 — a consensus view that FRPT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Freshpet, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for FRPT?

Freshpet, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FRPT?

CirclFi analyzes FRPT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FRPT?

Of the 10 models currently active on FRPT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $35.17 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $5.19. CirclFi's published fair value for FRPT is the median of that range, $22.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 135% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FRPT a value trap in 2026?

Freshpet, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) has a median fair value of $22.17 — 68.7% below the current price of $70.82 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FRPT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FRPT valuation
  • Financial statements: Freshpet, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001611647) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FRPT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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