Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) Fair Value 2026

XERS · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) trades at $8.48, versus a $1.37 median fair value across its 8 active models — 83.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.60.

Key Facts

Ticker
XERS
Price
$8.48
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $1.37, 83.8% below the current price of $8.48. Estimates range from $0.60 to $8.63. XERS scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. XERS’s -83.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XERS?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.60 -92.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.22 -85.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.52 -82.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.69 -91.8%
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What Is XERS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.60 to $8.63

CirclFi's 8 active models place Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) between $0.60 and $8.63 per share, a spread of 585% of the median. The median of that range — $1.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XERS, against a current price of $8.48.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.60median $1.37$8.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.60
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.63
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XERS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XERS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $1.37. Trading at its current price of $8.48, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -83.8%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +1.8% (fair value: $8.63), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -92.9% ($0.60). The spread between these extremes — +94.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XERS?

8 of 13 models are currently active for XERS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XERS is $1.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.60 on its own, implying -92.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XERS Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, XERS ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

The Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector introduces analytical considerations specific to healthcare company businesses. For Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc., metrics like biosimilar competition timeline provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is XERS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XERS a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XERS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XERS's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ORGOOrganogenesis Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0HIMSHims & Hers Health, Inc.QOC 7.9KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plcQOC 8.1PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.QOC 7.8AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3CRONCronos Group Inc.QOC 7.4EVOEvotec SEQOC 6.2AMLXAmylyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.1GREHGreen Rain Energy Holdings Inc.QOC 3.3UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ORGO · HIMS · KNSA · PCRX · AMRX · CRON · EVO · AMLX · GREH · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XERS?

7 companies across all industries closest to XERS’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

WTBAWest Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.9LTHLife Time Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9NUNu Holdings Ltd.QOC 7.9CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.9PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanyQOC 7.9TTMITTM Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WTBA · LTH · NU · CHRW · PFGC · TTMI · NVDA

Where Does XERS Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

XERS is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)'s intrinsic value at $1.37 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.60 to $8.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.60 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XERS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.48, 1 of 8 active models suggest XERS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $1.37, 83.8% below the current price of $8.48 — a consensus view that XERS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for XERS?

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XERS?

CirclFi analyzes XERS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XERS?

Of the 8 models currently active on XERS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $8.63 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.60. CirclFi's published fair value for XERS is the median of that range, $1.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 585% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XERS a value trap in 2026?

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) has a median fair value of $1.37 — 83.8% below the current price of $8.48 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XERS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XERS valuation
  • Financial statements: Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001867096) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XERS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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