Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) Fair Value 2026

XERS · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) trades at $8.28, approximately 323% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.96. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XERS
Price
$8.28
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.96 -76.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$1.23 -85.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.11 -74.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.19 -73.6%

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What Is Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.95. Trading at its current price of $8.28, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -64.4%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +9.5% (fair value: $9.06), while EPV is the most conservative at -85.1% ($1.23). The spread between these extremes — +94.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XERS?

11 of 13 models are currently active for XERS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates XERS's intrinsic value at $1.96, implying -76.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XERS Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 469 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, XERS ranks #70 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

The Pharmaceutical Preparations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to healthcare company businesses. For Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc., metrics like biosimilar competition timeline provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is XERS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XERS a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. scores 6.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XERS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XERS's 11 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AMPH · AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.

What is Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XERS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.28, 1 of 11 active models suggest XERS may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for XERS?

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XERS?

CirclFi analyzes XERS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XERS a value trap in 2026?

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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