Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) Fair Value 2026

KNSA · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) trades at $78.08, versus a $24.04 median fair value across its 8 active models — 69.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $63.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
KNSA
Price
$78.08
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $24.04, 69.2% below the current price of $78.08. Estimates range from $15.62 to $63.05. KNSA scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. KNSA’s -69.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KNSA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.08)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.05 -19.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $25.89 -66.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $22.18 -71.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.04 -64.1%
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What Is KNSA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $15.62 to $63.05

CirclFi's 8 active models place Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) between $15.62 and $63.05 per share, a spread of 197% of the median. The median of that range — $24.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KNSA, against a current price of $78.08.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$15.62median $24.04$63.05
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$15.62
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$63.05
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KNSA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KNSA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $24.04, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $78.08. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-69.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at -19.3% (fair value: $63.05), while EROIC is the most conservative at -80.0% ($15.62). The spread between these extremes — +60.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About KNSA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for KNSA. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for KNSA is $24.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $63.05 on its own, implying -19.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KNSA Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, KNSA ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places KNSA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic space, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc competes in an environment where FDA approval probability often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is KNSA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KNSA a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +60.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KNSA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KNSA's 8 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ORGOOrganogenesis Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0PBHPrestige Consumer Healthcare Inc.QOC 8.3XERSXeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9SIGASIGA Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4HIMSHims & Hers Health, Inc.QOC 7.9TXMDTherapeuticsMD, Inc.QOC 6.2SKYISky Century Investment, Inc.QOC 5.2SHPHShuttle Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.6UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: AMRX · ORGO · PBH · XERS · SIGA · HIMS · TXMD · SKYI · SHPH · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KNSA?

7 companies across all industries closest to KNSA’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

AVNTAvient CorporationQOC 8.1CAASChina Automotive Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.QOC 8.1VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 8.0BCHBanco de ChileQOC 8.1CACICACI International IncQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AVNT · CAAS · MSGE · VOXR · BCH · CACI · NVDA

Where Does KNSA Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

KNSA is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc’s Valuation?

What is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA)'s intrinsic value at $24.04 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.62 to $63.05. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $63.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KNSA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.08, 0 of 8 active models suggest KNSA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $24.04, 69.2% below the current price of $78.08 — a consensus view that KNSA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for KNSA?

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KNSA?

CirclFi analyzes KNSA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KNSA?

Of the 8 models currently active on KNSA, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $63.05 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $15.62. CirclFi's published fair value for KNSA is the median of that range, $24.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 197% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KNSA a value trap in 2026?

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (KNSA) has a median fair value of $24.04 — 69.2% below the current price of $78.08 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KNSA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KNSA valuation

Market data for KNSA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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