Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Fair Value 2026

AMPH · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) trades at $19.29, approximately 71% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $65.60. QOC: 10.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMPH
Price
$19.29
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +254.0% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$65.60 +240.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$10.25 -46.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$50.91 +163.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$68.29 +254.0%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Trading at $19.29 against an estimated intrinsic value of $43.15, 10 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +123.7% on average. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $78.84 (+308.7%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.33 (-82.7%). This +391.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AMPH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AMPH. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMPH's intrinsic value at $65.60, implying +240.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMPH Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 13 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, AMPH ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places AMPH in the top tier.

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that pipeline depth and stage distribution plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AMPH a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AMPH. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +391.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMPH's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ALKS · AMRX · ANIP · AQST · ANIK

Frequently Asked Questions About Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

What is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $65.60. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.29, 10 of 12 active models suggest AMPH may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for AMPH?

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMPH?

CirclFi analyzes AMPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMPH a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AMPH at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AMPH.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access