Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Fair Value 2026

AMPH · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) trades at $21.88, versus a $38.42 median fair value across its 12 active models — 75.6% above the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $88.04.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMPH
Price
$21.88
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +302.4% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $38.42, 75.6% above the current price of $21.88. Estimates range from $14.54 to $88.04. AMPH scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AMPH’s +75.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMPH?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $88.04 +302.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.47 -6.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $46.76 +113.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $75.61 +245.6%
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What Is AMPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $14.54 to $88.04

CirclFi's 12 active models place Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) between $14.54 and $88.04 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $38.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMPH, against a current price of $21.88.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$14.54median $38.42$88.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$14.54
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$88.04
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Trading at $21.88 against an estimated intrinsic value of $38.42, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +75.6% at the median. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $88.04 (+302.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $14.54 (-33.6%). This +336.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AMPH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AMPH. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMPH is $38.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $88.04 on its own, implying +302.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMPH Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, AMPH ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places AMPH in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that pipeline depth and stage distribution plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AMPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMPH a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.4/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +336.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMPH's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 9.3AKANAkanda Corp.QOC 1.3LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3SXTCChina SXT Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 1.4NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 9.1IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0GELSGelteq LimitedQOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: UTHR · ZTS · AKAN · LNTH · SXTC · NBIX · IRWD · VTRS · GELS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMPH’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

PEGAPegasystems Inc.QOC 9.4RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4CLSCelestica Inc.QOC 9.4ACFNAcorn Energy, Inc.QOC 9.4MLIMueller Industries, Inc.QOC 9.4CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PEGA · RMBS · CLS · ACFN · MLI · CF · NVDA

Where Does AMPH Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

AMPH is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH)'s intrinsic value at $38.42 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.54 to $88.04. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $88.04 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.88, 10 of 12 active models suggest AMPH may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $38.42, 75.6% above the current price of $21.88 — a consensus view that AMPH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for AMPH?

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMPH?

CirclFi analyzes AMPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMPH?

Of the 12 models currently active on AMPH, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $88.04 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $14.54. CirclFi's published fair value for AMPH is the median of that range, $38.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMPH a value trap in 2026?

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH) has a median fair value of $38.42 — 75.6% above the current price of $21.88 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001297184) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AMPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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