Alkermes plc (ALKS) Fair Value 2026

ALKS · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Alkermes plc (ALKS) trades at $48.90, versus a $28.52 median fair value across its 10 active models — 41.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $64.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALKS
Price
$48.90
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +32.7% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alkermes plc (ALKS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alkermes plc (ALKS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $28.52, 41.7% below the current price of $48.90. Estimates range from $5.67 to $64.90. ALKS scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALKS’s -41.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alkermes plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALKS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($48.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.90 +32.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.67 -88.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $34.89 -28.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $38.09 -22.1%
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What Is ALKS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $5.67 to $64.90

CirclFi's 10 active models place Alkermes plc (ALKS) between $5.67 and $64.90 per share, a spread of 208% of the median. The median of that range — $28.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALKS, against a current price of $48.90.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$5.67median $28.52$64.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.67
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$64.90
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALKS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALKS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alkermes plc (ALKS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alkermes plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $28.52, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $48.90. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-41.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $64.90 (+32.7%), versus EPV at $5.67 (-88.4%). This +121.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ALKS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ALKS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALKS is $28.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $64.90 on its own, implying +32.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALKS Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, ALKS ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ALKS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, Alkermes plc operates in a sector where FDA approval probability is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ALKS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ALKS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALKS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Alkermes plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Alkermes plc's fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALKS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALKS's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alkermes plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

PAHCPhibro Animal Health CorporationQOC 8.7HLNHaleon plcQOC 8.5COLLCollegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.QOC 8.8ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LimitedQOC 8.8BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4AKBAAkebia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6RMTIRockwell Medical, Inc.QOC 5.8KOANResonate Blends, Inc.QOC 4.4UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: PAHC · HLN · COLL · ETST · RDY · BCRX · AKBA · RMTI · KOAN · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALKS?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALKS’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

EXPOExponent, Inc.QOC 8.6GTMZoomInfo Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.QOC 8.6PCBPCB BancorpQOC 8.6RSGRepublic Services, Inc.QOC 8.6BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXPO · GTM · HOMB · PCB · RSG · BCO · NVDA

Where Does ALKS Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

ALKS is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alkermes plc’s Valuation?

What is Alkermes plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alkermes plc (ALKS)'s intrinsic value at $28.52 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.67 to $64.90. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $64.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALKS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $48.90, 2 of 10 active models suggest ALKS may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $28.52, 41.7% below the current price of $48.90 — a consensus view that ALKS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alkermes plc's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ALKS?

Alkermes plc's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALKS?

CirclFi analyzes ALKS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALKS?

Of the 10 models currently active on ALKS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $64.90 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.67. CirclFi's published fair value for ALKS is the median of that range, $28.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 208% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALKS a value trap in 2026?

Alkermes plc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alkermes plc (ALKS) has a median fair value of $28.52 — 41.7% below the current price of $48.90 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALKS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALKS valuation
  • Financial statements: Alkermes plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001520262) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALKS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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