Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Fair Value 2026

DUK · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) trades at $120.25, versus a $89.67 median fair value across its 10 active models — 25.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DUK
Price
$120.25
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $89.67, 25.4% below the current price of $120.25. Estimates range from $17.65 to $179.07. DUK scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DUK’s -25.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Duke Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DUK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($120.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.65 -85.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $77.46 -35.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.17 -52.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $68.10 -43.4%
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What Is DUK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $17.65 to $179.07

CirclFi's 10 active models place Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) between $17.65 and $179.07 per share, a spread of 180% of the median. The median of that range — $89.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DUK, against a current price of $120.25.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$17.65median $89.67$179.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$17.65
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$179.07
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DUK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DUK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Duke Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $89.67. Trading at $120.25, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -25.4%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $179.07 (+48.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $17.65 (-85.3%). This +134.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Duke Energy Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DUK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DUK. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DUK is $89.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DUK Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, DUK ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Duke Energy Corporation's positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Electric segment means that earned vs. allowed ROE plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rate case outcomes — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DUK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DUK a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Duke Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Duke Energy Corporation scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +134.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DUK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DUK's 10 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Duke Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7CMSCMS Energy CorporationQOC 8.0MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.1IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3PNWPinnacle West Capital CorporationQOC 7.0EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: NEE · NGG · CMS · MGEE · CEPU · IDA · CNP · PNW · EDN · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DUK?

7 companies across all industries closest to DUK’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

FMBMF & M Bank Corp.QOC 7.8MMacy's, Inc.QOC 7.8NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.QOC 7.8NPKINPK International Inc.QOC 7.8PEBKPeoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc.QOC 7.8BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FMBM · M · NOG · NPKI · PEBK · BYD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Duke Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Duke Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)'s intrinsic value at $89.67 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $17.65 to $179.07. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DUK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $120.25, 3 of 10 active models suggest DUK may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $89.67, 25.4% below the current price of $120.25 — a consensus view that DUK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Duke Energy Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for DUK?

Duke Energy Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DUK?

CirclFi analyzes DUK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DUK?

Of the 10 models currently active on DUK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $179.07 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $17.65. CirclFi's published fair value for DUK is the median of that range, $89.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 180% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DUK a value trap in 2026?

Duke Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) has a median fair value of $89.67 — 25.4% below the current price of $120.25 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DUK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DUK valuation
  • Financial statements: Duke Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001326160) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DUK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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