NiSource Inc. (NI) Fair Value 2026

NI · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, NiSource Inc. (NI) trades at $40.67, versus a $25.19 median fair value across its 8 active models — 38.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NI
Price
$40.67
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NiSource Inc. (NI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, NiSource Inc. (NI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $25.19, 38.1% below the current price of $40.67. Estimates range from $10.70 to $63.53. NI scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NI’s -38.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -32.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NiSource Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.29 -35.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.70 -73.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.10 -40.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.77 -61.2%
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What Is NI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $10.70 to $63.53

CirclFi's 8 active models place NiSource Inc. (NI) between $10.70 and $63.53 per share, a spread of 210% of the median. The median of that range — $25.19 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NI, against a current price of $40.67.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$10.70median $25.19$63.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$10.70
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$63.53
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NiSource Inc. (NI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NiSource Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $25.19, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $40.67. With 6 out of 8 models flagging downside (-38.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +56.2% (fair value: $63.53), while EROIC is the most conservative at -73.7% ($10.70). The spread between these extremes — +129.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for NI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NI is $25.19 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NI Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 15 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, NI ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a oil and gas company, NiSource Inc. operates in a sector where capital efficiency ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NI a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for NiSource Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NiSource Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NI's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NiSource Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.QOC 7.8SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: SPH · SR · ATO · BIPC · UGI · RGCO · NWN · NJR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NI?

7 companies across all industries closest to NI’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.8CAECAE Inc.QOC 7.8JXNJackson Financial Inc.QOC 7.8PBProsperity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8MFCManulife Financial CorporationQOC 7.8LARKLandmark Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APOG · CAE · JXN · PB · MFC · LARK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NiSource Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NiSource Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NiSource Inc. (NI)'s intrinsic value at $25.19 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.70 to $63.53. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.67, 2 of 8 active models suggest NI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $25.19, 38.1% below the current price of $40.67 — a consensus view that NI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NiSource Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for NI?

NiSource Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NI?

CirclFi analyzes NI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NI?

Of the 8 models currently active on NI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $63.53 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $10.70. CirclFi's published fair value for NI is the median of that range, $25.19, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 210% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NI a value trap in 2026?

NiSource Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, NiSource Inc. (NI) has a median fair value of $25.19 — 38.1% below the current price of $40.67 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NI valuation
  • Financial statements: NiSource Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001111711) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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