NiSource Inc (NI) Fair Value 2026

NI · Electric & Other Services Combined ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, NiSource Inc (NI) trades at $47.06, approximately 19% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $58.24. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NI
Price
$47.06
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +23.8% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$58.24 +23.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$31.39 -33.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$37.52 -20.3%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$8.64 -81.6%

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What Is NiSource Inc (NI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on NiSource Inc at its current price of $47.06. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $32.92 (-30.1% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +23.8% (fair value: $58.24), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -83.9% ($7.56). The spread between these extremes — +107.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NI's intrinsic value at $58.24, implying +23.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NI Rank in Electric & Other Services Combined?

Among 18 Electric & Other Services Combined stocks, NI ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places NI in the top tier.

As a regulated utility, NiSource Inc operates in a sector where customer growth rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NI a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for NiSource Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NiSource Inc's fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +107.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NI's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NiSource Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric & Other Services Combined Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric & Other Services Combined stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMS · ED · EVRG · WEC · LNT

Frequently Asked Questions About NiSource Inc

What is NiSource Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, NiSource Inc (NI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $58.24. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.06, 2 of 11 active models suggest NI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NiSource Inc's business model in Electric & Other Services Combined.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for NI?

NiSource Inc's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NI?

CirclFi analyzes NI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NI a value trap in 2026?

NiSource Inc's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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