Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) Fair Value 2026

GNE · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) trades at $14.86, versus a $19.68 median fair value across its 11 active models — 32.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $41.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
GNE
Price
$14.86
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +182.6% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $19.68, 32.4% above the current price of $14.86. Estimates range from $3.27 to $41.99. GNE scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GNE’s +32.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Genie Energy Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GNE?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.99 +182.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.82 +134.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.83 +40.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.72 -7.7%
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What Is GNE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.27 to $41.99

CirclFi's 11 active models place Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) between $3.27 and $41.99 per share, a spread of 197% of the median. The median of that range — $19.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GNE, against a current price of $14.86.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$3.27median $19.68$41.99
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.27
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$41.99
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GNE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GNE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genie Energy Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.68, suggesting a +32.4% median upside from the current price of $14.86. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $41.99 (+182.6%), versus Markov DDM at $3.27 (-78.0%). This +260.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GNE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for GNE. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GNE is $19.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $41.99 on its own, implying +182.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GNE Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, GNE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places GNE in the top tier.

Genie Energy Ltd.'s positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Electric segment means that earned vs. allowed ROE plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rate case outcomes — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GNE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GNE a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Genie Energy Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genie Energy Ltd. scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +260.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GNE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GNE's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genie Energy Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.QOC 8.2IMSRTerrestrial Energy Inc.QOC 5.1CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.1NKLRTerra Innovatum Global N.V.QOC 5.3CMSCMS Energy CorporationQOC 8.0ENICEnel Chile S.A.QOC 7.4PCGPG&E CorporationQOC 7.2DDominion Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: CIG · ED · IMSR · CEPU · NKLR · CMS · ENIC · PCG · D

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GNE?

7 companies across all industries closest to GNE’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.4VECOVeeco Instruments Inc.QOC 8.4OVBCOhio Valley Banc Corp.QOC 8.4XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4HURNHuron Consulting Group Inc.QOC 8.4NVGSNavigator Holdings Ltd.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AU · VECO · OVBC · XPRO · HURN · NVGS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Genie Energy Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Genie Energy Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)'s intrinsic value at $19.68 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.27 to $41.99. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $41.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GNE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.86, 7 of 11 active models suggest GNE may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $19.68, 32.4% above the current price of $14.86 — a consensus view that GNE is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genie Energy Ltd.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for GNE?

Genie Energy Ltd.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GNE?

CirclFi analyzes GNE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GNE?

Of the 11 models currently active on GNE, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $41.99 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.27. CirclFi's published fair value for GNE is the median of that range, $19.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 197% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GNE a value trap in 2026?

Genie Energy Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) has a median fair value of $19.68 — 32.4% above the current price of $14.86 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GNE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GNE valuation
  • Financial statements: Genie Energy Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001528356) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GNE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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