Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) Fair Value 2026

GNE · Electric & Other Services Combined ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) trades at $14.09, approximately 45% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $25.74. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GNE
Price
$14.09
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +82.7% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$25.74 +82.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$13.68 -2.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$13.32 -5.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$12.08 -14.3%

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What Is Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genie Energy Ltd. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $14.09. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $13.88 (-1.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $25.80 (+83.1%), versus Markov DDM at $2.56 (-81.8%). This +164.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GNE?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GNE. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GNE's intrinsic value at $25.74, implying +82.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GNE Rank in Electric & Other Services Combined?

Among 18 Electric & Other Services Combined stocks, GNE ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Genie Energy Ltd.'s positioning within the Electric & Other Services Combined segment means that earned vs. allowed ROE plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including rate case outcomes — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GNE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GNE a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Genie Energy Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Genie Energy Ltd. scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GNE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GNE's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genie Energy Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric & Other Services Combined Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric & Other Services Combined stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMS · ED · NI · EVRG · WEC

Frequently Asked Questions About Genie Energy Ltd.

What is Genie Energy Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $25.74. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GNE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.09, 5 of 13 active models suggest GNE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genie Energy Ltd.'s business model in Electric & Other Services Combined.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for GNE?

Genie Energy Ltd.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GNE?

CirclFi analyzes GNE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GNE a value trap in 2026?

Genie Energy Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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