BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Fair Value 2026

BCRX · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) trades at $9.41, approximately 143% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.87. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BCRX
Price
$9.41
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $3.58, 61.9% below the current price of $9.41. Estimates range from $0.19 to $10.55. BCRX scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $3.87 -58.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $5.85 -37.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $4.65 -50.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $2.10 -77.7%

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What Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.09, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $9.41. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-56.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $10.55 (+12.2%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.19 (-98.0%). This +110.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BCRX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BCRX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BCRX's intrinsic value at $3.87, implying -58.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BCRX Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, BCRX ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BCRX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BCRX a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BCRX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BCRX's 12 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

What is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.87. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BCRX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.41, 1 of 12 active models suggest BCRX may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $3.58, 61.9% below the current price of $9.41 — a consensus view that BCRX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for BCRX?

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BCRX?

CirclFi analyzes BCRX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BCRX a value trap in 2026?

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) has a median fair value of $3.58 — 61.9% below the current price of $9.41 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BCRX/ · Methodology

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