Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Fair Value 2026

AYTU · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) trades at $2.22, approximately 1% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.25. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AYTU
Price
$2.22
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +343.0% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $6.94, 212.8% above the current price of $2.22. Estimates range from $0.12 to $12.31. AYTU scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aytu BioPharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$2.25 +1.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$6.98 +214.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$6.94 +212.8%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$9.83 +343.0%

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What Is Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2.22. Based on our 13-model framework, Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $5.98 — representing +169.5% implied upside — with 9 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: EROIC targets $12.31 (+454.3%), versus ML-RIV at $0.12 (-94.6%). This +548.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AYTU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AYTU. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AYTU's intrinsic value at $2.25, implying +1.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AYTU Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, AYTU ranks #126 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Within the Pharmaceutical Preparations space, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AYTU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AYTU a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Aytu BioPharma, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +548.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AYTU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AYTU's 11 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aytu BioPharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Aytu BioPharma, Inc.

What is Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.25. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AYTU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.22, 10 of 11 active models suggest AYTU may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $6.94, 212.8% above the current price of $2.22 — a consensus view that AYTU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for AYTU?

Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AYTU?

CirclFi analyzes AYTU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AYTU a value trap in 2026?

Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) has a median fair value of $6.94 — 212.8% above the current price of $2.22 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AYTU/ · Methodology

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