Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Fair Value 2026

AYTU · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (41/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) trades at $2.05, versus a $5.53 median fair value across its 6 active models — 169.6% above the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 41/100 (WARN). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
AYTU
Price
$2.05
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
41/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +207.4% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 41 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $5.53, 169.6% above the current price of $2.05. Estimates range from $3.80 to $8.81. AYTU scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 41/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. AYTU’s +169.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -0.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aytu BioPharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AYTU?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.37 +161.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $5.69 +177.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.30 +207.4%
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What Is AYTU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $3.80 to $8.81

CirclFi's 6 active models place Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) between $3.80 and $8.81 per share, a spread of 91% of the median. The median of that range — $5.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AYTU, against a current price of $2.05.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · PWERM
$3.80median $5.53$8.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$3.80
Most bullish modelPWERM$8.81
Model agreement6 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AYTU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2.05. Based on our 13-model framework, Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.53 — representing +169.6% implied upside — with 6 out of 6 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $8.81 (+329.9%), versus Regime Cross at $3.80 (+85.4%). This +244.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AYTU?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AYTU. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AYTU is $5.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.37 on its own, implying +161.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AYTU Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, AYTU ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic space, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. competes in an environment where pipeline depth and stage distribution often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AYTU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AYTU a score of 41/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Aytu BioPharma, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AYTU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AYTU's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aytu BioPharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ACBAurora Cannabis Inc.QOC 6.5SNOASonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.3ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5ALVOAlvotechQOC 6.3AKBAAkebia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6ZYBTZhengye Biotechnology Holding LimitedQOC 6.3TLPHTalphera, Inc.QOC 5.7BUDZWEED, Inc.QOC 4.2ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ACB · SNOA · ADCT · ALVO · AKBA · ZYBT · TLPH · BUDZ · ETST · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AYTU?

7 companies across all industries closest to AYTU’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

TRCKTrack Group, Inc.QOC 6.3VNCEVince Holding Corp.QOC 6.3UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3CREXCreative Realities, Inc.QOC 6.3BFRGBullfrog AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3APYXApyx Medical CorporationQOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRCK · VNCE · UCTT · CREX · BFRG · APYX · NVDA

Where Does AYTU Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

AYTU is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aytu BioPharma, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU)'s intrinsic value at $5.53 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.80 to $8.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AYTU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.05, 6 of 6 active models suggest AYTU may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $5.53, 169.6% above the current price of $2.05 — a consensus view that AYTU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for AYTU?

Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AYTU?

CirclFi analyzes AYTU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AYTU?

Of the 6 models currently active on AYTU, PWERM is the most bullish at $8.81 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $3.80. CirclFi's published fair value for AYTU is the median of that range, $5.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 91% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AYTU a value trap in 2026?

Aytu BioPharma, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 41/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aytu BioPharma, Inc. (AYTU) has a median fair value of $5.53 — 169.6% above the current price of $2.05 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AYTU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AYTU valuation
  • Financial statements: Aytu BioPharma, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001385818) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AYTU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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