Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) Fair Value 2026

ACB · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) trades at $4.01, versus a $2.14 median fair value across its 8 active models — 46.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACB
Price
$4.01
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $2.14, 46.7% below the current price of $4.01. Estimates range from $1.37 to $3.72. ACB scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ACB’s -46.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aurora Cannabis Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACB?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.37 -65.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.06 -48.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $2.03 -49.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $1.43 -64.4%
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What Is ACB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.37 to $3.72

CirclFi's 8 active models place Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) between $1.37 and $3.72 per share, a spread of 110% of the median. The median of that range — $2.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACB, against a current price of $4.01.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$1.37median $2.14$3.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.37
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$3.72
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.14. Trading at its current price of $4.01, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -46.7%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $3.72 (-7.3%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.37 (-65.9%). This +58.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ACB?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ACB. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ACB is $2.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.37 on its own, implying -65.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACB Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, ACB ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

The Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector introduces analytical considerations specific to pharmaceutical industry businesses. For Aurora Cannabis Inc., metrics like patent cliff exposure provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ACB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACB a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Aurora Cannabis Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aurora Cannabis Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +58.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACB's 8 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aurora Cannabis Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5SNOASonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.3AKBAAkebia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6ALVOAlvotechQOC 6.3TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedQOC 6.7CRDLCardiol Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.3TLPHTalphera, Inc.QOC 5.7CBIHCannabis Bioscience International Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.3ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ADCT · SNOA · AKBA · ALVO · TEVA · CRDL · TLPH · CBIH · ETST · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACB?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACB’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

CREGSmart Powerr Corp.QOC 6.5BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.5NXBNextBoat Inc.QOC 6.5BTUPeabody Energy CorporationQOC 6.5SKASSaker Aviation Services, Inc.QOC 6.5EDITEditas Medicine, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CREG · BEAM · NXB · BTU · SKAS · EDIT · NVDA

Where Does ACB Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

ACB is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aurora Cannabis Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)'s intrinsic value at $2.14 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.37 to $3.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.01, 0 of 8 active models suggest ACB may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $2.14, 46.7% below the current price of $4.01 — a consensus view that ACB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for ACB?

Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACB?

CirclFi analyzes ACB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACB?

Of the 8 models currently active on ACB, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $3.72 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.37. CirclFi's published fair value for ACB is the median of that range, $2.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 110% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACB a value trap in 2026?

Aurora Cannabis Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) has a median fair value of $2.14 — 46.7% below the current price of $4.01 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACB valuation
  • Financial statements: Aurora Cannabis Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001683541) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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