Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Fair Value 2026

AKBA · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) trades at $0.94, versus a $1.76 median fair value across its 6 active models — 86.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
AKBA
Price
$0.94
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +84.9% upside with 39% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $1.76, 86.9% above the current price of $0.94. Estimates range from $1.68 to $1.96. AKBA scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AKBA’s +86.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AKBA?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.69 +79.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $1.74 +84.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1.68 +78.7%
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What Is AKBA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.68 to $1.96

CirclFi's 6 active models place Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) between $1.68 and $1.96 per share, a spread of 16% of the median. The median of that range — $1.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AKBA, against a current price of $0.94.

Low · First ChicagoHigh · FTNN
$1.68median $1.76$1.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFirst Chicago$1.68
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$1.96
Model agreement6 bullish · 0 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on AKBA. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AKBA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.76. At a current market price of $0.94, 6 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +86.9%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +108.8% (fair value: $1.96), while First Chicago is the most conservative at +78.7% ($1.68). The spread between these extremes — +30.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AKBA?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AKBA. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AKBA is $1.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.69 on its own, implying +79.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AKBA Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, AKBA ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic space, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where R&D productivity ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AKBA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AKBA a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +30.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AKBA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AKBA's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedQOC 6.7ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5ANIKAnika Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.8ACBAurora Cannabis Inc.QOC 6.5MRMDMariMed Inc.QOC 6.8SNOASonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.3TKNOAlpha Teknova, Inc.QOC 5.8KOANResonate Blends, Inc.QOC 4.4PAHCPhibro Animal Health CorporationQOC 8.7UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: TEVA · ADCT · ANIK · ACB · MRMD · SNOA · TKNO · KOAN · PAHC · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AKBA?

7 companies across all industries closest to AKBA’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6CNXCConcentrix CorporationQOC 6.6WEAVWeave Communications, Inc.QOC 6.6PYYXPyxus International, Inc.QOC 6.6TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6BDCOBlue Dolphin Energy CompanyQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACRS · CNXC · WEAV · PYYX · TULP · BDCO · NVDA

Where Does AKBA Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

AKBA is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA)'s intrinsic value at $1.76 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.68 to $1.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AKBA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.94, 6 of 6 active models suggest AKBA may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $1.76, 86.9% above the current price of $0.94 — a consensus view that AKBA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for AKBA?

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AKBA?

CirclFi analyzes AKBA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AKBA?

Of the 6 models currently active on AKBA, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $1.96 per share, and First Chicago is the most bearish at $1.68. CirclFi's published fair value for AKBA is the median of that range, $1.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 16% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AKBA a value trap in 2026?

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) has a median fair value of $1.76 — 86.9% above the current price of $0.94 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AKBA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AKBA valuation
  • Financial statements: Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001517022) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AKBA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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