Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Fair Value 2026

VNCE · Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) trades at $6.31. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VNCE
Price
$6.31
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +285.8% upside with 36% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$24.35 +285.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.04 +265.1%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$15.78 +150.1%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$21.85 +246.3%

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What Is Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Vince Holding Corp.. Trading at $6.31 against an estimated intrinsic value of $17.30, 10 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +174.1% on average. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $25.88 (+310.1%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $7.71 (+22.1%). This +288.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Vince Holding Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VNCE?

10 of 13 models are currently active for VNCE. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VNCE Rank in Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores?

Among 9 Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores stocks, VNCE ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places VNCE in the top tier.

The Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Vince Holding Corp., metrics like gross margin expansion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is VNCE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VNCE a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Vince Holding Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vince Holding Corp. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +288.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VNCE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VNCE's 10 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vince Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: JEM · CTRN · JL · ZUMZ · CURV

Frequently Asked Questions About Vince Holding Corp.

What is Vince Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VNCE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.31, 10 of 10 active models suggest VNCE may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vince Holding Corp.'s business model in Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for VNCE?

Vince Holding Corp.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VNCE?

CirclFi analyzes VNCE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is VNCE a value trap in 2026?

Vince Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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