Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Fair Value 2026

VNCE · Apparel Manufacturing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) trades at $12.24, versus a $10.27 median fair value across its 9 active models — 16.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VNCE
Price
$12.24
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +53.9% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $10.27, 16.1% below the current price of $12.24. Estimates range from $0.48 to $18.84. VNCE scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. VNCE’s -16.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Apparel Manufacturing sector median is -11.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Vince Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VNCE?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.57 -30.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $18.84 +53.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.41 -72.1%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $13.09 +7.0%
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What Is VNCE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.48 to $18.84

CirclFi's 9 active models place Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) between $0.48 and $18.84 per share, a spread of 179% of the median. The median of that range — $10.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VNCE, against a current price of $12.24.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · First Chicago
$0.48median $10.27$18.84
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.48
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$18.84
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VNCE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VNCE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vince Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $10.27. Trading at $12.24, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.1%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $18.84 (+53.9%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $0.48 (-96.1%). This +150.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Vince Holding Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VNCE?

9 of 13 models are currently active for VNCE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VNCE is $10.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VNCE Rank in Apparel Manufacturing?

Among 26 Apparel Manufacturing stocks, VNCE ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

The Apparel Manufacturing sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Vince Holding Corp., metrics like gross margin expansion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is VNCE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VNCE a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Vince Holding Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Vince Holding Corp. scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VNCE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VNCE's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Vince Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Manufacturing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Manufacturing stocks with 13-model coverage

OXMOxford Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5UAAUnder Armour, Inc.QOC 5.8LAKELakeland Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6PLBYPlayboy, Inc.QOC 5.8VFCV.F. CorporationQOC 7.0UAUnder Armour, Inc.QOC 5.8XELBXcel Brands, Inc.QOC 4.2LEVILevi Strauss & Co.QOC 8.5JLJ-Long Group LimitedQOC 7.6RLRalph Lauren CorporationQOC 9.3KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: OXM · UAA · LAKE · PLBY · VFC · UA · XELB · LEVI · JL · RL · KTB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VNCE?

7 companies across all industries closest to VNCE’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

AYTUAytu BioPharma, Inc.QOC 6.3CREXCreative Realities, Inc.QOC 6.3TRCKTrack Group, Inc.QOC 6.3APYXApyx Medical CorporationQOC 6.3UCTTUltra Clean Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3VPRBVPR Brands, LPQOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AYTU · CREX · TRCK · APYX · UCTT · VPRB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Vince Holding Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Vince Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)'s intrinsic value at $10.27 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.48 to $18.84. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VNCE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.24, 4 of 9 active models suggest VNCE may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $10.27, 16.1% below the current price of $12.24 — a consensus view that VNCE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Vince Holding Corp.'s business model in Apparel Manufacturing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for VNCE?

Vince Holding Corp.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VNCE?

CirclFi analyzes VNCE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VNCE?

Of the 9 models currently active on VNCE, First Chicago is the most bullish at $18.84 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.48. CirclFi's published fair value for VNCE is the median of that range, $10.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 179% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VNCE a value trap in 2026?

Vince Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) has a median fair value of $10.27 — 16.1% below the current price of $12.24 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VNCE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VNCE valuation
  • Financial statements: Vince Holding Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001579157) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VNCE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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