Alvotech (ALVO) Fair Value 2026

ALVO · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Alvotech (ALVO) trades at $5.19, versus a $2.61 median fair value across its 7 active models — 49.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.25.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALVO
Price
$5.19
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alvotech (ALVO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Alvotech (ALVO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $2.61, 49.7% below the current price of $5.19. Estimates range from $0.25 to $5.04. ALVO scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. ALVO’s -49.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -7.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alvotech Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALVO?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.25 -95.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.61 -49.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $2.74 -47.2%
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What Is ALVO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.25 to $5.04

CirclFi's 7 active models place Alvotech (ALVO) between $0.25 and $5.04 per share, a spread of 183% of the median. The median of that range — $2.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALVO, against a current price of $5.19.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.25median $2.61$5.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.25
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$5.04
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALVO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALVO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alvotech (ALVO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alvotech's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.61. Trading at its current price of $5.19, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -49.7%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $5.04 (-2.9%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.25 (-95.1%). This +92.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alvotech's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALVO?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ALVO. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ALVO is $2.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.25 on its own, implying -95.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALVO Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, ALVO ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Alvotech's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that patent cliff exposure plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALVO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALVO a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Alvotech. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alvotech earns a quality score of 6.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALVO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALVO's 7 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alvotech Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

SNOASonoma Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.3CRDLCardiol Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.3ACBAurora Cannabis Inc.QOC 6.5CPIXCumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.3ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5ZYBTZhengye Biotechnology Holding LimitedQOC 6.2CVSICV Sciences, Inc.QOC 5.4GRPSGold River Productions, Inc.QOC 4.1BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: SNOA · CRDL · ACB · CPIX · ADCT · ZYBT · CVSI · GRPS · BCRX · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALVO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALVO’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

PLTKPlaytika Holding Corp.QOC 6.3BRTXBioRestorative Therapies, Inc.QOC 6.3ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.QOC 6.3SRRESunrise Real Estate Group, Inc.QOC 6.3CHRSCoherus Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.3LGPSLogProstyle Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PLTK · BRTX · ASTS · SRRE · CHRS · LGPS · NVDA

Where Does ALVO Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

ALVO is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alvotech’s Valuation?

What is Alvotech's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alvotech (ALVO)'s intrinsic value at $2.61 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $0.25 to $5.04. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.25 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALVO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.19, 0 of 7 active models suggest ALVO may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $2.61, 49.7% below the current price of $5.19 — a consensus view that ALVO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alvotech's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for ALVO?

Alvotech's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALVO?

CirclFi analyzes ALVO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALVO?

Of the 7 models currently active on ALVO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $5.04 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.25. CirclFi's published fair value for ALVO is the median of that range, $2.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 183% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALVO a value trap in 2026?

Alvotech's Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Alvotech (ALVO) has a median fair value of $2.61 — 49.7% below the current price of $5.19 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALVO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALVO valuation
  • Financial statements: Alvotech 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001898416) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALVO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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