Alvotech (ALVO) Fair Value 2026

ALVO · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Alvotech (ALVO) trades at $3.38, approximately 129% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.48. QOC: 2.0/10. 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALVO
Price
$3.38
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +99.3% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Alvotech (ALVO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alvotech (ALVO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $3.99, 18.0% above the current price of $3.38. Estimates range from $1.24 to $8.79. ALVO scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alvotech Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $1.48 -56.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $3.65 +8.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $6.74 +99.3%
RCMH-DCF
Low Conviction
 $1.24 -63.3%

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What Is Alvotech (ALVO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Alvotech at $3.38. With an estimated intrinsic value of $4.49 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +32.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $8.79 (+160.0%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $1.24 (-63.3%). This +223.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alvotech's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALVO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ALVO. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALVO's intrinsic value at $1.48, implying -56.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALVO Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 13 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, ALVO ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Alvotech's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that patent cliff exposure plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALVO a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ALVO. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Alvotech. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alvotech earns a quality score of 2.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +223.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALVO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALVO's 10 active models, average confidence is 3%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alvotech Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 10.0ALKSAlkermes plcQOC 8.4AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.0ANIPANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.5AQSTAquestive Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.8ANIKAnika Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.6ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.4AKBAAkebia Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: AMPH · ALKS · AMRX · ANIP · AQST

Frequently Asked Questions About Alvotech

What is Alvotech's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Alvotech (ALVO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.48. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALVO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.38, 7 of 10 active models suggest ALVO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $3.99, 18.0% above the current price of $3.38 — a consensus view that ALVO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alvotech's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for ALVO?

Alvotech's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALVO?

CirclFi analyzes ALVO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALVO a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ALVO at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Alvotech (ALVO) has a median fair value of $3.99 — 18.0% above the current price of $3.38 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALVO/ · Methodology

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