Haleon plc (HLN) Fair Value 2026

HLN · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Haleon plc (HLN) trades at $8.87, versus a $8.79 median fair value across its 10 active models — 1.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $26.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLN
Price
$8.87
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +200.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Haleon plc (HLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Haleon plc (HLN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $8.79, essentially in line with the current price of $8.87. Estimates range from $7.01 to $26.65. HLN scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HLN’s -1.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -0.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Haleon plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.65 +200.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.17 -7.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.92 +11.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.01 -21.0%
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What Is HLN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $7.01 to $26.65

CirclFi's 10 active models place Haleon plc (HLN) between $7.01 and $26.65 per share, a spread of 224% of the median. The median of that range — $8.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLN, against a current price of $8.87.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$7.01median $8.79$26.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$7.01
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$26.65
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Haleon plc (HLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Haleon plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $8.79, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $8.87. With a median implied return of -1.0% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +221.5% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +200.5% (fair value: $26.65), while EROIC is the most conservative at -21.0% ($7.01). The spread between these extremes — +221.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HLN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HLN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLN is $8.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $26.65 on its own, implying +200.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLN Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, HLN ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places HLN in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Haleon plc's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that biosimilar competition timeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Haleon plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Haleon plc scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +221.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLN's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Haleon plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ALKSAlkermes plcQOC 8.6ETSTEarth Science Tech, Inc.QOC 8.5PAHCPhibro Animal Health CorporationQOC 8.7BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LimitedQOC 8.8SIGASIGA Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.4ADCTADC Therapeutics SAQOC 6.5VRNOVerano Holdings Corp.QOC 5.7PTPIPetros Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.3UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ALKS · ETST · PAHC · BCRX · RDY · SIGA · ADCT · VRNO · PTPI · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLN?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLN’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedQOC 8.5LEVILevi Strauss & Co.QOC 8.5OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, Inc.QOC 8.5FOXFox CorporationQOC 8.5MTGMGIC Investment CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INVH · GVA · LEVI · OHI · FOX · MTG · NVDA

Where Does HLN Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

HLN is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Haleon plc’s Valuation?

What is Haleon plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Haleon plc (HLN)'s intrinsic value at $8.79 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $7.01 to $26.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $26.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.87, 5 of 10 active models suggest HLN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $8.79, essentially in line with the current price of $8.87 — a consensus view that HLN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Haleon plc's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for HLN?

Haleon plc's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLN?

CirclFi analyzes HLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLN?

Of the 10 models currently active on HLN, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $26.65 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $7.01. CirclFi's published fair value for HLN is the median of that range, $8.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 224% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLN a value trap in 2026?

Haleon plc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Haleon plc (HLN) has a median fair value of $8.79 — essentially in line with the current price of $8.87 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLN valuation
  • Financial statements: Haleon plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001900304) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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