Haleon plc (HLN) Fair Value 2026

HLN · Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Haleon plc (HLN) trades at $9.87, approximately 22% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $12.63. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLN
Price
$9.87
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +59.5% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$12.63 +28.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$6.08 -38.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$9.78 -0.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$15.73 +59.5%

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What Is Haleon plc (HLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Haleon plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $9.23, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $9.87. With an average implied return of -6.4% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +157.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +59.5% (fair value: $15.73), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.8% ($0.22). The spread between these extremes — +157.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HLN?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HLN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HLN's intrinsic value at $12.63, implying +28.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLN Rank in Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations?

Among 20 Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations stocks, HLN ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places HLN in the top tier.

Haleon plc's positioning within the Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Haleon plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Haleon plc scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLN's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Haleon plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Haleon plc

What is Haleon plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Haleon plc (HLN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $12.63. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.87, 6 of 13 active models suggest HLN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Haleon plc's business model in Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for HLN?

Haleon plc's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLN?

CirclFi analyzes HLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HLN a value trap in 2026?

Haleon plc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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