What Is Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $66.87, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $34.82. With an average implied return of +92.0% across a split 6–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +526.4% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +472.0% (fair value: $199.16), while EPV is the most conservative at -54.4% ($15.89). The spread between these extremes — +526.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About COLL?
12 of 13 models are currently active for COLL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates COLL's intrinsic value at $139.49, implying +300.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does COLL Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?
Among 440 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, COLL ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places COLL in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.'s positioning within the Pharmaceutical Preparations segment means that FDA approval probability plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is COLL a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COLL a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +526.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every COLL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across COLL's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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