M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) Fair Value 2026

MHO · Operative Builders ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) trades at $146.21, approximately 5% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $153.14. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MHO
Price
$146.21
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +77.1% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($146.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $153.14 +4.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $189.46 +29.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $165.06 +12.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $258.98 +77.1%

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What Is M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, M/I Homes, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $159.99, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $146.21. While the average implied return is +9.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +143.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $258.98 (+77.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $49.09 (-66.4%). This +143.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about M/I Homes, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MHO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MHO. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MHO's intrinsic value at $153.14, implying +4.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MHO Rank in Operative Builders?

Among 19 Operative Builders stocks, MHO ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places MHO in the top tier.

M/I Homes, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MHO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MHO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for M/I Homes, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, M/I Homes, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MHO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MHO's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy M/I Homes, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Operative Builders Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Operative Builders stocks with 13-model coverage

PHMPulteGroup, Inc.QOC 10.0GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 9.9NVRNVR, Inc.QOC 9.7TMHCTaylor Morrison Home CorporatioQOC 9.6ECGEverus Construction Group, Inc.QOC 9.6KBHKB HomeQOC 9.0TOLToll Brothers, Inc.QOC 8.7LRELead Real Estate Co., LtdQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: PHM · GRBK · NVR · TMHC · ECG

Frequently Asked Questions About M/I Homes, Inc.

What is M/I Homes, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $153.14. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MHO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $146.21, 7 of 13 active models suggest MHO may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits M/I Homes, Inc.'s business model in Operative Builders.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for MHO?

M/I Homes, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MHO?

CirclFi analyzes MHO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MHO a value trap in 2026?

M/I Homes, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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