Universal Display Corporation (OLED) Fair Value 2026

OLED · Electronic Components ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Universal Display Corporation (OLED) trades at $84.85, versus a $42.91 median fair value across its 12 active models — 49.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
OLED
Price
$84.85
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +81.5% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Universal Display Corporation (OLED) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Universal Display Corporation (OLED) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $42.91, 49.4% below the current price of $84.85. Estimates range from $20.15 to $170.42. OLED scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OLED’s -49.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Electronic Components sector median is -58.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Universal Display Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OLED?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($84.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.59 -69.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.96 -57.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $56.21 -33.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $153.97 +81.5%
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What Is OLED's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $20.15 to $170.42

CirclFi's 12 active models place Universal Display Corporation (OLED) between $20.15 and $170.42 per share, a spread of 350% of the median. The median of that range — $42.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OLED, against a current price of $84.85.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$20.15median $42.91$170.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$20.15
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$170.42
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OLED. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OLED, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Universal Display Corporation (OLED) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Universal Display Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $42.91. Trading at $84.85, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -49.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +100.8% (fair value: $170.42), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -76.3% ($20.15). The spread between these extremes — +177.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OLED?

12 of 13 models are currently active for OLED. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OLED is $42.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.59 on its own, implying -69.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OLED Rank in Electronic Components?

Among 46 Electronic Components stocks, OLED ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places OLED in the top tier.

Universal Display Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OLED a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OLED a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Universal Display Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Universal Display Corporation earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +177.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OLED valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OLED's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Universal Display Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electronic Components Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Electronic Components stocks with 13-model coverage

ALNTAllient Inc.QOC 8.2TTMITTM Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.9BHEBenchmark Electronics, Inc.QOC 8.3WETHWetouch Technology Inc.QOC 7.7MPTIM-tron Industries, Inc.QOC 8.4LFUSLittelfuse, Inc.QOC 7.6KOPNKopin CorporationQOC 6.8WBXWallbox N.V.QOC 4.4CTSCTS CorporationQOC 8.9CLSCelestica Inc.QOC 9.4APHAmphenol CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ALNT · TTMI · BHE · WETH · MPTI · LFUS · KOPN · WBX · CTS · CLS · APH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OLED?

7 companies across all industries closest to OLED’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

VXRTVaxart, Inc.QOC 8.1FNRNFirst Northern Community BancorpQOC 8.1NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.1TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc.QOC 8.1WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1TERTeradyne, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VXRT · FNRN · NTNX · TROW · WEN · TER · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Universal Display Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Universal Display Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Universal Display Corporation (OLED)'s intrinsic value at $42.91 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $20.15 to $170.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OLED overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $84.85, 4 of 12 active models suggest OLED may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $42.91, 49.4% below the current price of $84.85 — a consensus view that OLED is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Universal Display Corporation's business model in Electronic Components.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for OLED?

Universal Display Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OLED?

CirclFi analyzes OLED with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OLED?

Of the 12 models currently active on OLED, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $170.42 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $20.15. CirclFi's published fair value for OLED is the median of that range, $42.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 350% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OLED a value trap in 2026?

Universal Display Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Universal Display Corporation (OLED) has a median fair value of $42.91 — 49.4% below the current price of $84.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OLED/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OLED valuation
  • Financial statements: Universal Display Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001005284) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OLED as of ; valuations recomputed .

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