Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Fair Value 2026

SUPN · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) trades at $43.73, versus a $24.04 median fair value across its 7 active models — 45.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $19.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
SUPN
Price
$43.73
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $24.04, 45.0% below the current price of $43.73. Estimates range from $9.77 to $98.74. SUPN scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SUPN’s -45.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SUPN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.90 -54.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.04 -45.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $14.00 -68.0%
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What Is SUPN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $9.77 to $98.74

CirclFi's 7 active models place Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) between $9.77 and $98.74 per share, a spread of 370% of the median. The median of that range — $24.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SUPN, against a current price of $43.73.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$9.77median $24.04$98.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$9.77
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$98.74
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SUPN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SUPN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.04. Trading at its current price of $43.73, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -45.0%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $98.74 (+125.8%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $9.77 (-77.7%). This +203.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SUPN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SUPN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SUPN is $24.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $19.90 on its own, implying -54.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SUPN Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, SUPN ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that revenue per drug plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SUPN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SUPN a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +203.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SUPN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SUPN's 7 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

TRLVTrulieve Cannabis Corp.QOC 7.3ELANElanco Animal Health IncorporatedQOC 7.2CRONCronos Group Inc.QOC 7.4INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.QOC 7.8ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2SBFMSunshine Biopharma, Inc.QOC 6.1HYEXHealthy Extracts Inc.QOC 4.9BGMBGM Group Ltd.QOC 1.9UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: TRLV · ELAN · CRON · INDV · PCRX · ETON · SBFM · HYEX · BGM · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SUPN?

7 companies across all industries closest to SUPN’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

PZZAPapa John's International, Inc.QOC 7.2CYDChina Yuchai International LimitedQOC 7.2ECBKECB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2MYPSPLAYSTUDIOS, Inc.QOC 7.2MAMOMassimo GroupQOC 7.2BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PZZA · CYD · ECBK · MYPS · MAMO · BTSG · NVDA

Where Does SUPN Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

SUPN is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)'s intrinsic value at $24.04 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.77 to $98.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $19.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SUPN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.73, 1 of 7 active models suggest SUPN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $24.04, 45.0% below the current price of $43.73 — a consensus view that SUPN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for SUPN?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SUPN?

CirclFi analyzes SUPN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SUPN?

Of the 7 models currently active on SUPN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $98.74 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $9.77. CirclFi's published fair value for SUPN is the median of that range, $24.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 370% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SUPN a value trap in 2026?

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) has a median fair value of $24.04 — 45.0% below the current price of $43.73 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SUPN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SUPN valuation
  • Financial statements: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001356576) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SUPN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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