Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Fair Value 2026

ELAN · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) trades at $24.11, versus a $12.02 median fair value across its 7 active models — 50.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ELAN
Price
$24.11
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $12.02, 50.1% below the current price of $24.11. Estimates range from $2.21 to $25.08. ELAN scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ELAN’s -50.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Elanco Animal Health Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ELAN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.02 -50.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $17.24 -28.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.64 -76.6%
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What Is ELAN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.21 to $25.08

CirclFi's 7 active models place Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) between $2.21 and $25.08 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $12.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ELAN, against a current price of $24.11.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$2.21median $12.02$25.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$2.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$25.08
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ELAN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ELAN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $12.02. Trading at its current price of $24.11, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 7 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -50.1%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $25.08 (+4.0%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $2.21 (-90.8%). This +94.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ELAN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ELAN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ELAN is $12.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ELAN Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, ELAN ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that revenue per drug plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ELAN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ELAN a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Elanco Animal Health Incorporated. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ELAN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ELAN's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Elanco Animal Health Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2TRLVTrulieve Cannabis Corp.QOC 7.3ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2CRONCronos Group Inc.QOC 7.4IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1INISRadnostix, Inc.QOC 6.1RGCRegencell Bioscience Holdings LimitedQOC 4.8UPCUniverse Pharmaceuticals INCQOC 1.8UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: SUPN · INDV · TRLV · ETON · CRON · IRWD · INIS · RGC · UPC · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ELAN?

7 companies across all industries closest to ELAN’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

QNTOQuaint Oak Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals LimitedQOC 7.2AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.QOC 7.2DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.QOC 7.2RRyder System, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QNTO · TLX · AMCX · DOC · BTSG · R · NVDA

Where Does ELAN Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

ELAN is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Elanco Animal Health Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN)'s intrinsic value at $12.02 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.21 to $25.08. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ELAN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.11, 1 of 7 active models suggest ELAN may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $12.02, 50.1% below the current price of $24.11 — a consensus view that ELAN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for ELAN?

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ELAN?

CirclFi analyzes ELAN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ELAN?

Of the 7 models currently active on ELAN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $25.08 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $2.21. CirclFi's published fair value for ELAN is the median of that range, $12.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ELAN a value trap in 2026?

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) has a median fair value of $12.02 — 50.1% below the current price of $24.11 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ELAN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ELAN valuation
  • Financial statements: Elanco Animal Health Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001739104) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ELAN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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