Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) Fair Value 2026

IRWD · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) trades at $4.24, versus a $9.86 median fair value across its 8 active models — 132.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
IRWD
Price
$4.24
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +298.8% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $9.86, 132.5% above the current price of $4.24. Estimates range from $3.31 to $16.91. IRWD scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. IRWD’s +132.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IRWD?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.91 +298.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.86 +179.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $12.01 +183.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.31 -21.9%
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What Is IRWD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.31 to $16.91

CirclFi's 8 active models place Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) between $3.31 and $16.91 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $9.86 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IRWD, against a current price of $4.24.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$3.31median $9.86$16.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.31
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$16.91
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IRWD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IRWD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $9.86. At a current market price of $4.24, 6 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +132.5%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +298.8% (fair value: $16.91), while EROIC is the most conservative at -21.9% ($3.31). The spread between these extremes — +320.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About IRWD?

8 of 13 models are currently active for IRWD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IRWD is $9.86 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.91 on its own, implying +298.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IRWD Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, IRWD ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

The Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector introduces analytical considerations specific to healthcare company businesses. For Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc., metrics like clinical trial success rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is IRWD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IRWD a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +320.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IRWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IRWD's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.QOC 7.1INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2LQDALiquidia CorporationQOC 7.0ELANElanco Animal Health IncorporatedQOC 7.2TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedQOC 7.0OGIOrganigram Global Inc.QOC 6.1GELSGelteq LimitedQOC 4.7UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ETON · EBS · INDV · LQDA · ELAN · TAK · OGI · GELS · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IRWD?

7 companies across all industries closest to IRWD’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp.QOC 7.1CNRCore Natural Resources, Inc.QOC 7.1KKRKKR & Co. Inc.QOC 7.1BBUCBrookfield Business CorporationQOC 7.1FINWFinWise BancorpQOC 7.1GGBGerdau S.A.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KIDS · CNR · KKR · BBUC · FINW · GGB · NVDA

Where Does IRWD Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

IRWD is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)'s intrinsic value at $9.86 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.31 to $16.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IRWD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.24, 7 of 8 active models suggest IRWD may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $9.86, 132.5% above the current price of $4.24 — a consensus view that IRWD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for IRWD?

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IRWD?

CirclFi analyzes IRWD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IRWD?

Of the 8 models currently active on IRWD, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $16.91 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.31. CirclFi's published fair value for IRWD is the median of that range, $9.86, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IRWD a value trap in 2026?

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD) has a median fair value of $9.86 — 132.5% above the current price of $4.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IRWD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IRWD valuation
  • Financial statements: Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001446847) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IRWD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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