Medline Inc. (MDLN) Fair Value 2026

MDLN · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Medline Inc. (MDLN) trades at $39.44, approximately 314% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $9.53. QOC: 6.0/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDLN
Price
$39.44
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Medline Inc. (MDLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Medline Inc. (MDLN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $14.10, 64.2% below the current price of $39.44. Estimates range from $1.40 to $31.45. MDLN scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $9.53 -75.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $5.60 -85.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $13.68 -65.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $21.52 -45.4%

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What Is Medline Inc. (MDLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medline Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.29, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $39.44. With 12 out of 12 models flagging downside (-61.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $31.45 (-20.2%), versus EROIC at $1.40 (-96.4%). This +76.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MDLN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MDLN. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates MDLN's intrinsic value at $9.53, implying -75.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDLN Rank in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus?

Among 109 Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks, MDLN ranks #67 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks →

Medline Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MDLN a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MDLN. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Medline Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Medline Inc. is rated at 6.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +76.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDLN's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 10.0IRMDiRadimed CorporationQOC 10.0PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 10.0RMDResMed Inc.QOC 10.0WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, IQOC 9.9HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 9.8LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.8GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: DXCM · IRMD · PODD · RMD · WST

See all Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Medline Inc.

What is Medline Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Medline Inc. (MDLN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $9.53. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.44, 0 of 12 active models suggest MDLN may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $14.10, 64.2% below the current price of $39.44 — a consensus view that MDLN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medline Inc.'s business model in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for MDLN?

Medline Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDLN?

CirclFi analyzes MDLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDLN a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MDLN at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Medline Inc. (MDLN) has a median fair value of $14.10 — 64.2% below the current price of $39.44 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDLN/ · Methodology

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