Medline Inc. (MDLN) Fair Value 2026

MDLN · Medical Instruments & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Medline Inc. (MDLN) trades at $35.28, versus a $11.94 median fair value across its 11 active models — 66.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDLN
Price
$35.28
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +13.9% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Medline Inc. (MDLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medline Inc. (MDLN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $11.94, 66.1% below the current price of $35.28. Estimates range from $0.89 to $40.17. MDLN scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MDLN’s -66.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Instruments & Supplies sector median is -29.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Medline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDLN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.37 -96.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.89 -97.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.94 -66.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $40.17 +13.9%
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What Is MDLN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.89 to $40.17

CirclFi's 11 active models place Medline Inc. (MDLN) between $0.89 and $40.17 per share, a spread of 329% of the median. The median of that range — $11.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDLN, against a current price of $35.28.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$0.89median $11.94$40.17
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$0.89
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$40.17
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDLN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDLN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Medline Inc. (MDLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Medline Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.94, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $35.28. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-66.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $40.17 (+13.9%), versus EPV at $0.89 (-97.5%). This +111.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MDLN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MDLN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MDLN is $11.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.37 on its own, implying -96.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDLN Rank in Medical Instruments & Supplies?

Among 56 Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, MDLN ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks →

Medline Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MDLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDLN a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Medline Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Medline Inc. is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +111.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDLN's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Medline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

STVNStevanato Group S.p.A.QOC 7.7WRBYWarby Parker Inc.QOC 7.6ATRCAtriCure, Inc.QOC 7.8ICUIICU Medical, Inc.QOC 7.5PDEXPro-Dex, Inc.QOC 7.8SOLVSolventum CorporationQOC 7.2MMEDMiniMed Group, Inc.QOC 6.3FEMYFemasys Inc.QOC 5.6ATRAptarGroup, Inc.QOC 8.9ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: STVN · WRBY · ATRC · ICUI · PDEX · SOLV · MMED · FEMY · ATR · ISRG · RMD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDLN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDLN’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

PFBXPeoples Financial CorporationQOC 7.7SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc.QOC 7.7ARCBArcBest CorporationQOC 7.7GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.QOC 7.7VLYValley National BancorpQOC 7.7NMMNavios Maritime Partners L.P.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PFBX · SWK · ARCB · GXO · VLY · NMM · NVDA

Where Does MDLN Sit in CirclFi's Medical Instruments & Supplies Rankings?

MDLN is ranked against every other Medical Instruments & Supplies stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Medline Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Medline Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Medline Inc. (MDLN)'s intrinsic value at $11.94 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.89 to $40.17. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.28, 1 of 11 active models suggest MDLN may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $11.94, 66.1% below the current price of $35.28 — a consensus view that MDLN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Medline Inc.'s business model in Medical Instruments & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for MDLN?

Medline Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDLN?

CirclFi analyzes MDLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDLN?

Of the 11 models currently active on MDLN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $40.17 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $0.89. CirclFi's published fair value for MDLN is the median of that range, $11.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 329% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDLN a value trap in 2026?

Medline Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Medline Inc. (MDLN) has a median fair value of $11.94 — 66.1% below the current price of $35.28 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDLN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDLN valuation
  • Financial statements: Medline Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002046386) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDLN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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